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Some Demographic and Social Processes and the Problem of Kondratieff Cycle Periodicity

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Technological and Social Factors in Long Term Fluctuations

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems ((LNE,volume 321))

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Abstract

What upsets most with Kondratieff cycles is not so much the problem of their existence: we have merely to wait two more centuries of empirical evidence to be able to settle the existence problem with a reasonable degree of confidence. Nor is it that of finding out a theoretical explanation: at the moment the supply of long cycle theories is abundant, and at least three or four coherent and complete explanations are competing for hegemony on the academic market. What really disturbs is the problem of periodicity: why should long cycles last just 50–60 years? Or, to put the question in a more skeptical form; are long waves 50–60 year cycles? A great number of scholars that dared touch this problem seems inclined to accept a socio-demographic explanation. But what such an explanation should be no one knows.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Florence, Italy

    Ernesto Screpanti

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  1. Ernesto Screpanti
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  1. Department of Political Economy, University of Siena, Piazza S. Francesco, 7, I-53100, Siena, Italy

    Massimo Di Matteo , Richard M. Goodwin  & Alessandro Vercelli ,  & 

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Screpanti, E. (1989). Some Demographic and Social Processes and the Problem of Kondratieff Cycle Periodicity. In: Di Matteo, M., Goodwin, R.M., Vercelli, A. (eds) Technological and Social Factors in Long Term Fluctuations. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 321. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48360-8_7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48360-8_7

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-50663-8

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