Abstract
When in 1948 after the monetary reform the IFO Institute for Economic Research, Munich, interviewed several companies through its associates to find out whether the monetary reform had brought about the desired change1, no one thought that this would be the hour of birth of an information technique that would spread out worldwide2. This special form of survey technique was not completely new in Germany or abroad. The persons who initiated the IFO surveys, which were then undertaken on a monthly basis starting with November 1949, did not know about the “forerunners” in Germany3, nor were they aware of the experiences that had already been achieved in this field abroad4. Also the formal, theoretical foundation and the statistical-methodological basic conditions were largely lacking in the first instance5. This was a typical case of the often-deplored practice without theory. The blame for this is not only the fact that practitioners (i.e. empiricists) often are not very good theoreticians or else they are not at all theoreticians (the opposite is also true, unfortunately), but also the fact that information gathering is often subject to pressure from deadlines which often do not leave sufficient time frame for the time-consuming theoretical considerations.
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Notes
H. Langelütke and W. Marquardt: Das Konjunkturtest-Verfahren. “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Vol. 35 (1951), p. 191.
W. Marquardt and W. Strigel: Der Konjunkturtest. Eine neue Methode der Wirtschaftsbeobachtung. IFO Research Series No. 38, Berlin-München 1959.
W. Strigel: Zur Geschichte der Tendenzbefragung in Deutschland. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 3 (1957), p. 81 et seq.
See F. O. Bonhoeffer and W. H. Strigel: Amerikanische Unternehmerund Verbraucherbefragungen. IFO Research Series No. 63, Berlin-München 1966.
O. Anderson jun.: Konjunkturtest und Statistik. Möglichkeiten und Grenzen einer Quantifizierung von Testergebnissen. “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Vol. 35 (1951), p. 209 et seq.
A. Piatier: Nouvelles méthodes pour 1’étude de la conjoncture et la prévision économique. “Kyklos”, Vol. VI (1953/54), p. 37.
The term “Konjunkturumfragen” became the general designation for the IFO surveys in 1965. See W. Strigel: Die Konjunkturumfragen des IFO-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung. “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Vol. 49 (1965), p. 129 et seq.
See also F. N. Stutz: Der Konjunkturtest. Neue Wege der Konjunkturdiagnose und -prognose. Veröffentlichungen der Handelshochschule St. Gallen, Series A, No. 49, Zürich and St. Gallen 1957.
See e.g. O. Anderson and W. Strigel: Aussagewert und Determinanten unternehmerischer Urteile und Erwartungen. “CIEET-Studien”, No. 4, München 1965.
Langelütke/Marquardt: loc.cit. p. 197.
Marquardt/Strigel: loc.cit. p. 24.
F. O. Bonhoeffer and W. R. Streck: Der Investitionstest des IFO-Instituts. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 12 (1966), No. 1/2, p. 43 et seq.
R. Bemerl, F. O. Bonhoeffer and W. H. Strigel: Wie plant die Industrie? “Wirtschaftskonjunktur”, Vol. 18 (1966), No. 1, p. 27 et seq.
W. H. Strigel: Planning in West German Industry. “Long Range Planning”, Vol. 3, No. 1, September 1970, pp. 9–15.
W. Gerstenberger and W. H. Strigel: “Prognose 100” — Eine neue Umfrage des IFO-Instituts. “IFO-Schnelldienst”, Vol. 24 (1971), No. 37, p. 5 et seq.
M. Gaibinger, G. Nerb and W. H. Strigel: Zur Lebensqualität in der Wirtschaft — Ein Befragungsexperiment. “IFO-Schnelldienst”, Vol. 29 (1976), No. 1.
K. M. Hettlage: Economic Policy and Economic Information. Paper presented at the 9th CIRET Conference on 17.9–1969 in Madrid.
Langelütke/Marquardt: loc.cit. p. 190.
See the first report on the Business Survey in “IFO-Schnelldienst” Vol. 3 (1950), No. 16, p. 1 et seq.
Anderson, loc.cit.
O. Anderson jun., P. K. Bauer and P. Giehl: Zur Theorie des Konjunkturtests — Modelltheoretische Betrachtungen. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 1 (1955), No. 2, p. 159 et seq.
Strigel: Die Konjunkturumfragen, loc.cit. p. 129.
W. H. Strigel: Konjunkturindikatoren aus qualitativen Daten. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 18 (1972), No. 2, p. 185 et seq.
See the IPO Bulletin “IPO-Datenbanksystem”.
See e.g. the following investigations: a) J. Crockett and I. Friend: (The Integration of Business Investment Plans and other Anticipatory Data into Short-Term Forecasting Models. Paper presented at the 8th CIRET Conference in Paris, on 10.5.1967.
Y. Haitovsky and G. Treyz: The Information Value of Anticipation Data in Macro-Econometric Model Forecast. Paper presented at the 10th CIPET Conference in Brussels, on 17.9.1971.
P. Fair: Experience with a Short-Pun Forecasting Model of the United States Economy. Paper presented at the 11th CIRET Conference in London, on 15.3.1973.
G. Poser: Theoretical Implications and Empirical Results of the Use of Anticipatory Data in a Macro-economic Model. Paper presented at the 12th CIPET Conference in Stockholm, on 25.6.1975.
Strigel: loc.cit. p. 203.See also “Konjunktur-Indikatoren”, Specific publication No. 7 of “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Göttingen 1975, p. 51 et seq. — See also “Cyclical Indicators”, that are based to a large extent on business surveys, in “Main Economic Indicators”, ed. by O.E.C.D., Paris. part III.
G. Nerb: Konjunkturprognose mit Hilfe von Urteilen und Erwartungen der Konsumenten und der Unternehmer. IFO Research Series No. 86, Berlin 1975, p. 222 et seq.
See Anderson, Konjunkturtest und Statistik. Möglichkeiten und Grenzen einer Quantifizierung von Testergebnissen. “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Vol. 35 (1951), p. 209
Anderson/Bauer/Giehl: Zur Theorie des Konjunkturtests — Modelltheoretische Betrachtungen. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 1 (1955), No. 2, p. 159
also: J. D. Lindlbauer: Zum Aussagewert der Nachfragevariablen im IFO-Konjunkturtest. “CIRET-Studien” No. 8, München 1967, By the same author: Schätzung des Produktionsindex mit Hilfe von Ex-post- und Ex-ante-Daten des Konjunkturtests. “CIRET-Studien”, No. 11 München 1969.
F. Söffner in co-operation with J. D. Lindlbauer and I. Ruderer: Das Bauhauptgewerbe im Spiegel von IFO-Konjunktur-test und Statistik. “IFO-Studien zur Bauwirtschaft”, No. 3, München 1975.
W. Gerstenberger, J. D. Lindlbauer, G. Nerb and W. H. Strigel: Die Abschwungsphase 1966/67 im Lichte der Konjunkturindikatoren. “Wirtschaftskonjunktur”, Vol. 22 (1970), No. 1, p. 35 et seq.
Strigel: loc.cit.
Ch. C. Roberts: Makroökonomische Konjunkturindikatoren für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. “CIRET-Studien” No. 22, München 1975.
See M. Starzmann and D. P. Wehowski: Zur Treffsicherheit unternehmerischer Erwartungen im Zeitablauf. Mimeographed copy. München 1960.
P. O. Bonhoeffer and W. H. Strigel: Investitionsplanung und Güte der Investitionvoraussagen in der westdeutschen Industrie. “CIRET-Studien” No. 9, München 1967, p. 10 et seq.
See e.g. W. Gerstenherger: Prognostic Application of Investment Plans for Forecasting Macroeconomic Capital Expenditures. Paper presented at the 11th CIRET Conference in London, on 13.9.1973.
See e.g. O. Anderson gun. and W. H. Strigel: Empirische Untersuchungen des Unternehmerverhaltens anhand von Konjunkturtest-Daten. “IPO-Studien”, Vol. 6 (1960), p. 143 et seq.
O. Hatzold and H. Helmschrott: Analyse unternehmerischer Verhaltensweisen. IPO Research Series No. 44, Berlin 1961.
O. Anderson gun.: Ein Grundkonzept zur Kongunkturtest-Auswertung. “IPO-Studien”, Vol. 18 (1972), No. 2, p. 213 et seq.
See e.g. O. Anderson gun., R. K. Bauer and E. Pels: On the Accuracy of Short-Term Entrepreneurial Expectations. Contribution to the Montreal Meeting of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association. Economic Forecasting Techniques I, Sept. 10, 1954.
Bonhoeffer/Strigel: Investitionsplanung und Güte der Investitionvoraussagen in der westdeutschen Industrie. “CIRET-Studien” No. 9, München 1967, p. 10 .
Langelütke/Marquardt: loc.cit. p. 206.
Quoted from a contribution to a discussion at the Meeting of the Council for Economic Advisers of the IPO Institute in May 1952.
See e.g. O. Anderson gun., P. K. Bauer, H. Führer and J. P. Petersen: Ursachen und Typen kurzfristiger Produktions- und Preisplanrevisionen der Unternehmer. “IPO-Studien”, Vol. 2 (1956), p. 1 et seq.
See P. Machmek: Behandlung und Erkenntnis wert der Erwartungen in der Wirtschaftstheorie. “Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften”, No. 111, ed. by J. Broermann, Berlin 1968, p. 53 et seq.
J. M. Keynes: Allgemeine Theorie der Beschäftigung, des Zinses und des Geldes. Berlin 1955, p. 125.
W. A. Jöhr: Die Konjunkturschwankungen. Tübingen 1952, p. 588 et seq.
W. A. Jöhr: Zur Rolle des psychologischen Paktors in der Konjunkturtheorie. “IPO-Studien”, Vol. 18 (1972), p. 157 et seq.
G. Katona: Das Verhalten der Verbraucher und Unternehmer. Tübingen 1960. — G. Schmölders: Ökonomische Verhaltensforschung. Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Forschung des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, No. 71, Köln-Opladen, no date.
Anderson, Bauer et al., loc.cit.
J. P. Petersen and R. Petersen: Unternehmerische Reaktionsweisen in der Zeit. “CIRET-Studien” No. 5, München 1965.
Jöhr: Zur Rolle ..., loc.cit. p. 159.
Roberts, loc.cit. p. 69
See W. H. Strigel: Tenth CIRET Conference — Retrospect and Outlook. Paper presented at the 10th CIRET Conference in Brussels, 15.–17.9.1971.
In the CIRET archives of the IPO Institute there are texts with 250 papers and written contributions that were supplied for the 12 last CIRET Conferences.
See: The Harmonized Business Surveys in the Community: Principles and Methods, publ. by the Commission of the EEC, Brussels 1963.
G. Nerb and W. H. Strigel: Konjunkturumfragen bei Konsumenten in verschiedenen Ländern. “CIKET-Studien” No. 21, München 1974.
E. Fels: Maß und Richtung. Zur Aggregation dreiwertiger Signalkonstellationen im IFO-Konjunkturtestverfahren. “Statistische Vierteljahreszeitschrift”, Vienna, Vol. 7 (1954), p. 57 et seq.
M. Ziegler: Spezialliteratur über Konjunkturumfragen. “CIEET-Studien” No. 10, München 1968.
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Strigel, W.H. (1977). The Finger on the Pulse of the Economy. In: Strigel, W.H. (eds) In Search of Economic Indicators. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 146. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48304-2_1
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