Abstract
The recession, which began in mid-May 1974, and from which we are still suffering (May 1977),does not only present serious problems to entrepreneurs and finance ministers, but also to the large number of economists who believed that a serious decline in economic activity is no longer a threat to us. The high degree in which economists were surprised by the recession was shown by an investigation which the present writer carried out during a project-oriented course last winter at the Hochschule St.Gallen.
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Notes and References
cf. W.A. Jöhr, Wenn Keynes’ Waffen stumpf geworden sind…. Zur Keynesianischen Beschäftigungspolitik in der Welt der siebziger Jahre, in: Schweizerische Handelszeitung, 18th September 1975.
cf. E.-M. Claassen, Brauchen wir eine neue Konjunkturtheorie? Unorthodoxe Gedanken zu einem alten Thema, in: Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 2nd/3rd April 1977.
V.E. Frankl, Der Mensch auf der Suche nach Sinn. Zur Rehumenisierung der Psychotherapie, 5th ed., Stuttgart/Freiburg i.Br. 1976, p. 54. cf. also p. 79 and 94, and V.E. Frankl, Psychotherapie für den Laien. Rundfunkvorträge über Seelenheilkunde, 5th ed., Freiburg i.Br. 1975, p. 67.
Dr. F. Kopp, Zürich, gave me the quoted information.
I discussed the following examples in the field of mechanics, chemistry, and nuclear physics with my colleague at the School of Economics and Public Administration St.Gall, W. Weber, Professor of Technology.
G. Haberler, Prosperity and Depression. A Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements, Geneva 1937, p. 185.
J.M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, New York 1936, p. 313.
F.A. Hayek, Full Employment at any Price, London 1975, p. 15.
P. Samuelson, Interactions between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration, in: The Review of Economic Statistics, 1939.
J.R. Hicks, A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle, Oxford 1950.
The following list is based on W.A. Jöhr, Die Konjunkturschwankungen, Tübingen und Zürich 1952.
cf. W.A. Jöhr, Zur Rolle des psychologischen Faktors in der Konjunkturtheorie, in: Ifo-Studien, 1972, Fasc. 2, p. 157 et seq.
S. Runciman, Geschichte der Kreuzzüge, Volume III, München 1960, p. 144 (translated from the English) - R. Röhricht, Der Kinderkreuzzug, 1212, in: Historische Zeitschrift, ed. H.v.Sybel, München 1876 - P. Alphandéri, Les Croisades d’Enfants, in: Revue de l’Histoire des Religions, 1916, p. 259 et seq. - D.C. Munro, The Children’s Crusade, in: The American Historical Review, October 1913, p. 516 et seq.
G. Le Bon, Psychologie der Massen, 6th ed., Leipzig 1932 (translated from the French).
W. Hellpach, Die geistigen Epidemien, Frankfurt a.M. 1906 - L.-F. Calmeil, De la folie, considérée sous le point de vue pathologique, philosophique, historique et judiciaire, depuis la renaissance des sciences en Europe jusqu’au dix-neuvième siècle; description des grandes épidémies de délire, simple ou compliqué, qui ont atteint les populations d’autrefois et régné dans les monastères. Exposé des condamnations auxquelles la folie méconnue a souvent donné lieu, Paris 1845 (2 vol.).
L. Robbins, An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science, 2nd ed., 1937, p. 83.
W.St. Jevons, Politische Oekonomie (translated from the English), reprinted in: Ausgewählte Lesestücke zum Studium der Politischen Oekonomie, ed. K. Diehl and P. Mombert, Volume 7, 1913, p. 196 et seq.
A.C. Pigou, Industrial Fluctuations, London 1927, p. 79.
W.A. Jöhr, Die Konjunkturschwankungen, p. 589 et seq.
W.A. Jöhr, Spiel zur Simulation von Konjunkturprozessen, in: Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie, 1965, Fasc. 1–2, p. 99 et seq. - There is another game of mine as yet unpublished which gives the participants the chance to act as speculators on the Stock Exchange in varying conditions. To bring into existence the socio-psychological infection process,at certain stages of the game I inserted a kind of cocktail party conversation involving all players.
W.A. Jöhr, Zur Rolle des psychologischen Faktors in der Konjunkturtheorie, p. 176 et seq.
E. Noelle-Neumann, Die Schweigespirale. Ueber die Entstehung der öffentlichen Meinung, in: Oeffentlichkeit als Bedrohung. Beiträge zur empirischen Kommunikationsforschung, Freiburg i.Br. and München 1977.
The following exposition is an abbreviated version of the theory developed in my book“Die Konjunkturschwankungen”, p. 596 et seq.
The unemployment figures (December 1976, in millions) for some leading countries of the Western world were: USA 7.56; Great Britain 1.33; German Federal Republic 1.02; Japan 0.96; France 0.93; Italy 0.78 (Source OECD).
J.M. Keynes, op. cit., p. 249.
J.M. Keynes, op. cit., p. 27.
M. Friedman, Price Theory, Chicago 1976, p. 218 and 227.
M. Friedman, The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, London 1969, p. 102.
W.A. Jöhr, I)ie Konjunkturschwankungen, p. 604.
A comprehensive survey of the approach of the Ifo-Institute is given by W. Strigel, Der Finger am Puls der Wirtschaft. Entwicklung und Bedeutung der Ifo-Umfragen, in: Wirtschaftskonjunktur, Monatsbericht des Ifo-Institutes, 1964, Fasc. 3.
G. Katona in his book“Psychological Economics”,New York 1975, presents his earlier work and new contributions in his principal field of research.
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Jöhr, W.A. (1978). Psychological Infection, A Cause of Business Fluctuations. In: Strigel, W.H. (eds) Problems and Instruments of Business Cycle Analysis. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 154. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-47465-1_1
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