Abstract
By virtue of the results of the preceding section, we have drawn inference on whether or not the existence of an International Sugar Agreement affected stocks or systematic excess production in certain periods. It is the objective of this section to give a rough impression on how strong these effects might have been.
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References
For the terminology, see Pindyck & Rubinfeld (1976, pp. 312–313).
Prior to regression I checked all time series on moving average structures in the error terms, using the method recommended by Schlittgen Si Streitberg ( 1989, pp. 227–235 ). Surprisingly, I almost never found any evidence for the need of an MA—representation, and the autoregressive lag structures indicated were rather short (three lags at most).
Gordon-Ashworth (1984, p. 178) cites the sugar broker F. O. Licht with the assertion that quotas were distributed “not in accordance with the supply capabilities of the exporters but rather in recognition of negotiating strength and tactics”.
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© 1992 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Lucke, B. (1992). Quantifying the Effects of the International Sugar Agreements. In: Price Stabilization on World Agricultural Markets. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 393. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-46782-0_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-46782-0_9
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