Empirical Evidence

Abstract

Empirical verifications of macroeconomic models seek to establish a functional relation between macrovariables. The relations are improved and tested by employing some suitable statistical methods. The approach of this contribution is different in two ways. At first it tries to derive the individual behavior of the agents represented by the parameters of the transition probabilities from the macrovariables. The macrovariables are the effect of expectations and planning of individual agents and reflect their behavior. Also it is not possible to fit the data into the model with the help of orthodox, well known statistical methods and measurements. For a set of nonlinear coupled differential equations it is not possible to find one equation of motion that represents the dynamic behavior of the system and can be estimated with statistical methods. The only way to find the model’s parameters are numerical simulations that fit the model into the data.