Multi-Objective Decision Making under Uncertainty: An Example for Power System

Abstract

In order to further rural development in the Third World, dispersed electrical power systems can be advantageously used. Small communities far removed from the grid expect to be able to produce electricity in the most reliable and self sufficient way with their own limited qualified manpower and primary ressources. Solar technologies systems may therefore be considered whenever high insolation is available, instead of using Diesel engines and expensive fuel. Moreover, the modularity and long lifetime of such systems are very desirable features. A traditional cost/benefit analysis based on production costs and investment risks is not yet favourable due to the high initial cost of solar systems. Nevertheless, if other criteria such as security of supply, balance of payments, etc ... are taken into account, solar energy can possibly be an interesting proposition.

An interactive multi-objective analysis can then been developed to consider any number of criteria and to take into account the large future uncertainties associated with projected data available in the energy field.

In the first part of this paper, a particular case is described. In section II, the problem is completely modelled as a linear program with three objectives. Scenarios are considered on the basis of average and extreme assumptions of Diesel fuel price increases and on solar technology cost reductions. So we obtain a multi-objective stochastic linear programming problem.

The resolution method described in section III is an interactive procedure. It generalizes the STEM method [1] to take the random data of the problem in account. The results are presented in terms of the relative production of Diesel or solargenerators in section IV.