Abstract
It is well known that ex ante economic forecasts rely on preliminary data which will subsequently be revised as more complete information becomes available. However, in the specification and estimation of economic forecasting models, the distinction between preliminary and revised data is typically ignored. This practice leads to the construction of models that are not specifically designed to use the provisional observations that are available at the time the forecasts are prepared. This traditional approach to economic forecasting results in needlessly large prediction errors which can be reduced by using a more appropriate forecast procedure.
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© 1977 Springer-Verlag Berlin · Heidelberg
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Howrey, E.P. (1977). The Use of Preliminary Data in Economic Time-Series Prediction. In: Henn, R., Moeschlin, O. (eds) Mathematical Economics and Game Theory. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 141. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-45494-3_40
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-45494-3_40
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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