The Global Multi Factor Model of Seismic Activity: Priorities

Abstract

It is shown that catastrophic processes of the Earth occur at simultaneous action of several groups of factors that include external global space influences (the Sun and the Moon) and internal geological influences, which provide the condition in strong earthquake area. The chaotic space-time distribution of earthquakes tells us about this. On the basis of the analysis of events occurring during 110 years it is possible to assert that on an average quantity the number of earthquakes with magnitude $\mathrm{M}\ge 7$ has not increased. From the other hand, time intervals when the time distribution of earthquakes has periodic character are found. The purpose of this work is to reveal time intervals, during of which there is predominant influence of the separate factor. In order to do this we use statistical methods. The problem is complex because the ensemble of factors is impacting. By assuming a simultaneous influence of several factors (the Sun, the Moon and geological conditions) we performed the statistical division of the time series consisting of >500 events (during 1973–2005) into groups, in which one can see the influence of separate factors. It has been shown that the geological factor and the cyclic character of the Moon influence play the main role in appearance of the seismic activity.