Skip to main content

Evaluating Sentiment in Annual Reports for Financial Distress Prediction Using Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines

  • Conference paper
Book cover Engineering Applications of Neural Networks (EANN 2013)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 384))

Abstract

Sentiment in annual reports is recognized as being an important determinant of future financial performance. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of the sentiment on future financial distress. We evaluated the sentiment in the annual reports of U.S. companies using word categorization (rule-based) approach. We used six categories of sentiment, together with financial indicators, as the inputs of neural networks and support vector machines. The results indicate that the sentiment information significantly improves the accuracy of the used classifiers.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ravi Kumar, P., Ravi, V.: Bankruptcy Prediction in Banks and Firms via Statistical and Intelligent Techniques - A Review. Europ. J. of Operational Research 180(1), 1–28 (2007)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. Hajek, P., Olej, V.: Credit Rating Modelling by Kernel-Based Approaches with Supervised and Semi-Supervised Learning. Neural Computing and Applications 20(6), 761–773 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Kirkos, E.: Assessing Methodologies for Intelligent Bankruptcy Prediction. Artificial Intelligence Review 11 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Altman, E.I.: Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. Journal of Finance 23(4), 589–609 (1968)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Wilson, R.L., Sharda, R.: Bankruptcy Prediction using Neural Networks. Decision Support Systems 11(5), 545–557 (1994)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Huang, Z., Chen, H., et al.: Credit Rating Analysis with Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks: A Market Comparative Study. Decision Support Systems 37(4), 543–558 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Hajek, P.: Municipal Credit Rating Modelling by Neural Networks. Decision Support Systems 51(1), 108–118 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Chen, H.L., Yang, B., et al.: A Novel Bankruptcy Prediction Model based on an Adaptive Fuzzy k-nearest Neighbour Method. Knowledge-Based Systems 24(8), 1348–1359 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Hajek, P.: Credit Rating Analysis using Adaptive Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems: An Industry-Specific Approach. Central European Journal of Operations Research 20(3), 421–434 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Varetto, F.: Genetic Algorithms Applications in the Analysis of Insolvency Risk. Journal of Banking and Finance 22(10-11), 1421–1439 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Cecchini, M., Aytug, H., et al.: Making Words Work: Using Financial Text as a Predictor of Financial Events. Decision Support Systems 50(1), 164–175 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Tetlock, P.C.: Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market. Journal of Finance 62, 1139–1168 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Loughran, T., McDonald, B.: When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10-Ks. The Journal of Finance 66(1), 35–65 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Hajek, P., Olej, V., Myskova, R.: Forecasting Stock Prices using Sentiment Information in Annual Reports - A Neural Network and Support Vector Regression Approach. WSEAS Transactions on Systems (in press, 2013)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Kohut, G.F., Segars, A.H.: The President’s Letter to Stockholders: An Examination of Corporate Communication Strategy. Journal of Business Communication 29(1), 7–21 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Feldman, R., Govindaraj, S., et al.: Management’s Tone Change, Post Earnings Announcement Drift and Accruals. Review of Accounting Studies 15, 915–953 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Li, F.: The Information Content of Forward-Looking Statements in Corporate Filings - A Naïve Bayesian Machine Learning Approach. Journal of Accounting Research 48(5), 1049–1102 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Huang, A., Zang, A., et al.: Informativeness of Text in Analyst Reports: A Naïve Bayesian Machine Learning Approach. Working Paper. The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Magnusson, C., Arppe, A., et al.: The Language of Quarterly Reports as an Indicator of Change in the Company’s Financial Status. Information & Management 42(4), 561–574 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Goel, S., Gangolly, J.: Beyond the Numbers: Mining the Annual Reports for Hidden Cues Indicative of Financial Statement Fraud. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management 19(2), 75–89 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Lu, Y.C., Shen, C.H., et al.: Revisiting Early Warning Signals of Corporate Credit Default using Linguistic Analysis. Pacifin-Basin Finance Journal 24, 1–21 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Hanley, K.W., Hoberg, G.: The Information Content of IPO Prospectuses. Review of Financial Studies 23(7), 2821–2864 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Demers, E.A., Vega, C.: Soft Information in Earnings Announcements: News or Noise? Working paper. INSEAD (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Das, S., Chen, M.: Yahoo! for Amazon: Opinion Extraction from Small Talk on the Web. Working paper. Santa Clara University (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Feldman, R., Fresko, M., et al.: Text Mining at the Term Level. In: Żytkow, J.M. (ed.) PKDD 1998. LNCS, vol. 1510, pp. 65–73. Springer, Heidelberg (1998)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  26. Haykin, S.: Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation, 2nd edn. Prentice-Hall Inc., New Jersey (1999)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  27. Platt, J.C.: Fast Training of Support Vector Machines using Sequential Minimal Optimization. In: Schoelkopf, B., Burges, C., Smola, A. (eds.) Advances in Kernel Methods - Support Vector Learning. MIT Press (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  28. Bifet, A., Frank, E.: Sentiment Knowledge Discovery in Twitter Streaming Data. In: Pfahringer, B., Holmes, G., Hoffmann, A. (eds.) DS 2010. LNCS, vol. 6332, pp. 1–15. Springer, Heidelberg (2010)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  29. Kira, K., Rendell, L.A.: A Practical Approach to Feature Selection. In: Proc. of the 9th International Workshop on Machine Learning, pp. 249–256 (1992)

    Google Scholar 

  30. Hajek, P., Olej, V.: Municipal Creditworthiness Modelling by Kernel-Based Approaches with Supervised and Semi-supervised Learning. In: Palmer-Brown, D., Draganova, C., Pimenidis, E., Mouratidis, H. (eds.) EANN 2009. CCIS, vol. 43, pp. 35–44. Springer, Heidelberg (2009)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Hájek, P., Olej, V. (2013). Evaluating Sentiment in Annual Reports for Financial Distress Prediction Using Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines. In: Iliadis, L., Papadopoulos, H., Jayne, C. (eds) Engineering Applications of Neural Networks. EANN 2013. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 384. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41016-1_1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41016-1_1

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-41015-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-41016-1

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics