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Rainfall Prediction for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Perspectives of Mitigation

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Typhoon Impact and Crisis Management

Part of the book series: Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research ((NTHR,volume 40))

Abstract

The torrential rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often represents the major impact to coastal regions, but at the same time an enormous challenge to meteorologists and forecasts. This chapter first discusses the complex dynamical processes involved in TC landfalls, which are related to the increased surface roughness and reduced surface moisture fluxes of land. The result is often certain patterns of convection and rainfall asymmetry in the landfalling TCs, but these patterns are not well explained by current theories or conceptual models. With emphasis of development of rainfall prediction techniques according to the needs of mitigation, the requirements on the skill of rainfall forecasts from the perspectives of mitigation are reviewed. Then, the operation and performance of several statistical TC rainfall models are discussed including the rainfall climatology-persistence model (R-CLIPER) for the Taiwan area. A topographic component is developed for R-CLIPER through multiple regression analyses, which improves the model’s performance in reproducing the local extreme rain that is lacking in the original model. Finally, the importance of utilizing remote-sensing data in TC rainfall prediction is discussed, and how TC rainfall statistical models can be applied to risk analyses under the consideration of global changes.

Prepared for “Remote Sensing of Typhoon Impact and Crisis Management”.

May 2011

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Acknowledgments

The first two authors (KKWC and LTCC) would like to thank Swiss Re for supporting their work on the rainfall climatology-persistence model. The continuous encouragement, support and comments from Prof. John McAneney of the Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre of Macquarie University are much appreciated. The third author (YL) is supported by the Higher Degree Research project support fund of Macquarie University. The third author (YL) was supported by a Macquarie University Research Excellence Scholarship (MQRES) and Higher Degree project support fund. YL is currently supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the City University of Hong Kong.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environment and Geography, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia

    Kevin K. W. Cheung & Yubin Li

  2. Department of Environmental Management, Tungnan University, New Taipei City, Taiwan

    Lisa T.-C. Chang

  3. Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University, Macquarie, Australia

    Lisa T.-C. Chang

  4. School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong

    Yubin Li

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  1. Kevin K. W. Cheung
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  2. Lisa T.-C. Chang
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Correspondence to Kevin K. W. Cheung .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Chinese Academy of Sciences, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou, China

    Dan Ling Tang

  2. Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou, China

    Guangjun Sui

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Cheung, K.K.W., Chang, L.TC., Li, Y. (2014). Rainfall Prediction for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Perspectives of Mitigation. In: Tang, D., Sui, G. (eds) Typhoon Impact and Crisis Management. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 40. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40695-9_8

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