Abstract
This chapter presents an inferential statistical study on the climate features of cyclone activities in the Northwestern Pacific (WNP) using data from 2,029 tropical cyclones (TCs) obtained within 60 years (1949–2008). The analysis shows the following results. (1) The annual genesis frequency of TC from 1949–2008 exhibits a statistically significant downward trend. The frequencies of tropical storms, typhoons, and strong typhoons have also declined, although less significantly than that of TCs. The interannual occurrence frequency of TCs has a statistically significant high value from 1960–1975, whereas its value is low from 1990–2008. (2) The highest frequency occurs at 14°–19°N and 115°–120°E within the 5° × 5° area, which is a narrow ocean surface to the west of Luzon Island in the South China Sea. (3) In general, the more southward and eastward the location of the TC genesis is, the stronger the TC is. Comparatively speaking, the effect of longitude on TC intensity is greater than that of latitude. Moreover, the interaction impact on TC intensity exists between latitude and longitude. This study provides new information that can improve the understanding of TC climate features over the WNP.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Casella, G., Berger, R.L.: Statistical inference, pp. 140–170. Brooks/Cole (2008)
Chan, J. C.L.: Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northwest Pacific in Relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev. 113, 599–606 (1985)
Chan, J.C.L., Liu, K.S.: Global warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective. Climate 17, 4590–4602 (2004)
Chan, J.C.L.: Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 89, 143–152 (2005)
Chan, J.C.L., Shi, J.E.: Long-term trends and interannual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 2765–2767 (1996)
Chen, S.R.: Storm source regions over northwest pacific. Meteorology 16, 23–26 (1990)
Chen, M., Zheng, R. G., Tan, Z. Y.: Tropical cyclone climate feature analysis over northwest pacific in recent 50 years. Trop. Meteorol. J. 16(2), 23–27 (1999)
Cox, D., Stuart, A.: Some quick sign tests for trend in location and dispersion. Biometrika 42, 80–95 (1955)
Emanuel, K.A.: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436, 686–688 (2005)
Jonckheere, A. R.: A Distribution-Free k-Sample Test Against Ordered Alternatives. Biometrika Trust 41(6), 133–145 (1954)
Kruskal, W. H., Wallis, W. A.: Use of Ranks in One-Criterion Variance Analysis. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 47(12), 583–621 (1952)
Landsea, C.W.: Meteorology: hurricanes and global warming. Nature 438, E11–E12 (2005). doi:10.1038/nature04477
Landsea, C.W., Harper, B.A., Hoarau, K., Knaff, J.A.: Climate change. Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science 313(5786), 452–454 (2006)
Landsea, C.W., Anderson, C., Charles, N., Clark, G., Dunion, J., Partagas, J.F., Hungerford, P., Neumann, C., Zimmer, M.: The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project: Documentation for 1851–1910 Alterations and Additions to the HURDAT Database, pp. 179–217. Columbia University Press (2004)
Sneyers, R.: On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations, pp. 182–192. World Meteorological Organization (1990)
Terpstra, T. J.: The asymptotic normality and consistency of Kendall's test against trend, when ties are present in one ranking. Indag. Math. 14(3), 328–333 (1952)
Walsh, K.: Tropical cyclones and climate change unresolved issues. Clim. Res. 27(1), 77–83 (2004)
Wang, X.L.: Storm tide hazard forecast and prevention. Ocean Forecast 15(3), 26–31 (1998)
Wang, G., Su, J., Ding, Y., Chen, D.: Tropical cyclone genesis over the South China Sea. J. Marine Syst. 68(3–4), 318–326 (2007)
Watson, R.T., Albritton, D.L.: Climate change 2001: Synthesis report: Third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 125–225. The Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge (2001)
Webster, P.J., Holland, G.J., Curry, J.A., Chang, H.R.: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309, 1844–1846 (2005)
Wei, Z.J., Tang, D.L., Sui, G.J.: Landfalling probability fitting of tropical cyclone based on Logistic model. J. Appl. Stat. Manage. 21(3), 389–397 (2012)
Yan, L.J., Huang, X.X., Yu, Y.B., Chen, X.Y., Chen, Z.F.: Tropical cyclone frequency variation feature in recent 58 years. Meteorol. Res. Appl. 28(S2), 63–67 (2007)
Yeung, K.H., Wu, M.C., Chang, W.L., Leung, Y.K.: Long-term change in tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific. EOS Trans., AGU 87(48), 537–538 (2006)
Yuan, J.L., Lin, A.L., Liu, C.X.: Change characters of tropical cyclones with different intensities over the western North Pacific during the last 60 years. Acta Meteorologica Sinica 66(2), 213–223 (2008)
Zhang, R.R.: New classification and relative terminology of tropical cyclone. Chin. Sci. Technol. Terms (2), 56 (2007)
Zhang, J.C., Rao, Z.X., Xie, Q.J., Shi, M.H.: An analysis of tropical cyclone activities in 1884–2006. Guangdong Meteorol. 30(2), 24–26 (2008)
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the following research projects awarded to DL Tang: (1) National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (31061160190, 40976091, NSFC-RFBR Project-41211120181 of DL Tang and D. Pozdnyakov); (2) Guangdong Sciences Foundation (2010B031900041, 8351030101000002); (3) Innovation Group Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (LTOZZ1201).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Wei, Z., Tang, D., Sui, G. (2014). An Inferential Statistical Study on the Climate Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones over the Northwestern Pacific. In: Tang, D., Sui, G. (eds) Typhoon Impact and Crisis Management. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 40. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40695-9_16
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40695-9_16
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-40694-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-40695-9
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)