Abstract
Two empirically grounded agent-based models of agricultural land-use change are presented and compared with respect to factors driving ground-water use. The models are identical in most aspects, but one model uses a utility-approach to represent farmers’ decision-making, while the other uses satisficing. The model-comparison exercise helps to distinguish substantial from implementation-dependent conclusions drawn from the model(s), and confirms the importance of model robustness tests.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Windrum, P., Fagiolo, G., Moneta, A.: Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models: Alternatives and Prospects. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(2) (2007)
Heckbert, S., Baynes, T., Reeson, A.: Agent-based modeling in ecological economics. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1185, 39–53 (2010)
Galán, J.M., Izquierdo, L.R., Izquierdo, S.S., Santos, J.I., del Olmo, R., López-Paredes, A., Edmonds, B.: Errors and Artefacts in Agent-Based Modelling. JASSS 12(1) (2009)
Jackson, T.: Motivating Sustainable Consumption - a review of evidence on consumer behaviour and behavioural change. A report to the Sustainable Development Research Network (2005)
An, L.: Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models. Ecological Modelling 229, 25–36 (2012)
Hare, M., Pahl-Wostl, C.: Model uncertainty derived from choice of agent rationality - a lesson for policy assessment modeling. In: Giambiasi, N., Frydman, C. (eds.) Simulation in Industry: 13th European Simulation Symposium, pp. 854–859. SCS Europe Bvba, Ghent (2001)
Matthews, R., Gilbert, N., Roach, A., Polhill, G., Gotts, N.: Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications. Landscape Ecology 22, 1447–1459 (2007)
Edwards-Jones, G.: Modelling farmer decision-making: concepts, progress and challenges. Animal Sciences 82, 783–790 (2006)
Janssen, S., van Ittersum, M.K.: Assessing farm innovationand responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models. Agricultural Systems 94, 622–636 (2007)
Holtz, G., Pahl-Wostl, C.: An agent-based model of groundwater over-exploitation in the Upper Guadiana, Spain. Regional Environmental Change 12(1), 121 (2012)
Nebel, M.: Implementation and analysis of ‘satisficing’ as a model for farmers’ decision-making in an agent-based model of groundwater over-exploitation, University of Osnabrück (2011)
Lopez-Gunn, E.: Policy change and learning in groundwater policy: a comparative analysis of collective action in la Mancha, Spain. King’s College, London (2003)
Llamas, R., Martínez-Santos, P.: NeWater Report: Baseline Condition Report Upper Guadiana Basin (2005)
Acreman, M.: GRAPES project: Technical Report. Groundwater and River Resources Programme on a European Scale (GRAPES). Report to the European Union ENV4-CT95-0186. Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, UK (2000)
Martínez-Santos, P., Llamas, R., Martínez-Alfaro, P.E.: Vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources: A modelling-based approach to the Mancha Occidental aquifer, Spain. Environmental Modelling & Software 23(9), 1145–1162 (2008)
Martínez-Santos, P., de Stefano, L., Llamas, R., Martínez-Alfaro, P.: Wetland Restoration in the Mancha Occidental Aquifer, Spain: A Critical Perspective on Water, Agricultural and Environmental Policies. Restoration Ecology 16(3), 511–521 (2008)
Ross, A., Martinez-Santos, P.: The challenge of groundwater governance: case studies from Spain and Australia. Regional Environmental Change 10(4), 299–310 (2010)
Varela-Ortega, C.: Policy-driven Determinants of Irrigation Development and Environmental Sustainability: A Case Study in Spain. In: Molle, F., Berkoff, J. (eds.) Irrigation Water Pricing: The Gap Between Theory and Practice. CAB International (2007)
Payne, J.W., Bettman, J.R.: Preferential Choice and Adaptive Strategy Use. In: Gigerenzer, G., Selten, R. (eds.) Bounded Rationality - The Adaptive Toolbox. MIT Press (2001)
Simon, H.A.: A behavioural model of rational choice. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 59, 59–118 (1955)
Simon, H.A.: Satisficing. In: Greenwald, D. (ed.) The McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Economics, pp. 881–886. McGraw-Hill (1993)
Simon, H.A.: Invariants of human behaviour. Annu. Rev. Psychol. 41, 1–19 (1990)
Gotts, N.M., Polhill, J.G., Law, A.N.R.: Aspiration Levels in a Land Use Simulation. Cybernetics and Systems 34(8), 663–683 (2003)
Maddison, A.: Angus Maddison homepage (2009), http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Holtz, G., Nebel, M. (2014). Testing Model Robustness – Variation of Farmers’ Decision-Making in an Agricultural Land-Use Model. In: Kamiński, B., Koloch, G. (eds) Advances in Social Simulation. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 229. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39829-2_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39829-2_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-39828-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-39829-2
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)