X. Long Term Perspectives for Social Protection

Abstract

The frequently asked question of what we can learn from history in general, and from the history of social protection, in particular, leads to two contradictory answers: (1) there is nothing to be learned, because history never repeats itself and because no normative statements can be extracted from descriptive statements. (2) All that is ever learned, and that includes what is wrong, is learned from “history,” namely from individual and collective experiences: for we know only what is behind us, but not what is ahead of us. In this sense, typical constellations and experiences can surely be bundled into some kinds of theses. What can be inferred from them bears all the uncertainties that are characteristic of forecasts. Moreover, experiences must be assessed—that is, in the final analysis societies decide, on the basis of the normative objectives dominant within them, which forms and benefits of social protection they want and which they reject.