Climate Change and Its Effects on Atoll Island States

Yamamoto, Lilian; Esteban, Miguel

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-38186-7_3

Lilian Yamamoto³ &
Miguel Esteban⁴

1499 Accesses
2 Citations

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change could have disastrous consequences for the survival of atolls around the planet. Although atolls have survived past increases in sea levels through the upward growth of corals, future increases in coral mortality due to raising sea temperatures and ocean acidification will probably mean that coral islands will suffer increasing erosion till they eventually disappear. Geomorphological change is unlikely to be linear with most of the change occurring due to high intensity episodic events. Potential future increases in tropical cyclone intensities due to rising sea temperatures are also likely to increase the pace of coastal erosion, further compounding the problem. While a number of adaptation measures are possible, ultimately the only definite path to ensure that islands can survive the death of corals is through the construction of coastal defences, which will become progressively more expensive as the depth of water in front of them continues to increase.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution

eBook: USD 16.99; Price excludes VAT (USA)

Softcover Book: USD 109.99; Price excludes VAT (USA)

Hardcover Book: USD 109.99; Price excludes VAT (USA)

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

1.
It should be noted that opinions on the subject sometimes differ, but as we will show in this chapter it appears unlikely that they will be able to adapt in the short term. For some views on this see Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2011), pp. 1494–1495.
2.
Magnan et al. (2011).
3.
Mimura et al. (2007) (A chapter within the IPCC 4AR).
4.
Mimura et al. (2007) (A chapter within the IPCC 4AR).
5.
Lyytimaki and Hilden (2011), pp. 598–612.
6.
Bindoff et al. (2007) (A chapter within the IPCC 4AR).
7.
Solomon et al. (2007) (A chapter within the IPCC 4AR).
8.
Webb and Kench (2010), pp. 234–246.
9.
Solomon et al. (2007) (A chapter within the IPCC 4AR).
10.
Allison et al. (2009), pp. 1–64.
11.
Allison et al. (2009), pp. 1–64.
12.
This research was done by linking sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to the global temperature, which could explain around 98 % of the variance in the data. See Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
13.
Magnan et al. (2011).
14.
USACE (2011).
15.
Though the report does not specify which peer-reviewed articles, thus meaning that the latest research on the subject should be used. An extreme case could be for example the scenarios outlined by Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
16.
USACE (2011).
17.
Stern (2006).
18.
Wassmann et al. (2004), pp. 89–107.
19.
Caron (1990), pp. 621–653.
20.
See Ericson et al. (2006), pp. 63–82. For the case of the Bay of Bengal see Tasnim (2010) citing Warrick et al. (1996) or Shibayama et al. (2009).
21.
Mimura et al. (2007) (A chapter within the IPCC 4AR).
22.
See Woodworth (2005), pp. 1–19, although this clearly does not agree well with more recent work such as that of Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
23.
Though the literature on this tends to refer to islands that have already seen violent conflicts for the last decades anyway, such as Solomon Islands and places in Papua New Guinea, see Maas and Carius (2012), pp. 1–17.
24.
Barnett (2004), pp. 191–215.
25.
See, for example Okamatsu (2005) or Conisbee and Simms (2003).
26.
Climate Prediction Centre (2005).
27.
Climate Prediction Centre (2005).
28.
Johnson (2011).
29.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
30.
Reaser et al. (2000), pp. 1500–1511.
31.
Burke et al. (2011).
32.
Burke et al. (2011).
33.
Burke et al. (2011).
34.
Burke et al. (2011).
35.
Yamano et al. (2011).
36.
Yamano et al. (2011).
37.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
38.
Burke et al. (2011).
39.
Reaser et al. (2000), pp. 1500–1511.
40.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
41.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
42.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213
43.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
44.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
45.
Done (1992), pp. 121–132.
46.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
47.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
48.
See Huntington et al. (2011), pp. 1077–1085 and International Society for Reef Studies (2008).
49.
Huntington et al. (2011), pp. 1077–1085 and International Society for Reef Studies (2008).
50.
Huntington et al. (2011), pp. 1077–1085 and International Society for Reef Studies (2008).
51.
Burke et al. (2011).
52.
Kleypas and Gattuso (2010).
53.
Kleypas et al. (1999), pp. 118–120.
54.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
55.
Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2009), pp. 1–61.
56.
Burke et al. (2011).
57.
International Society for Reef Studies (2008).
58.
Burke et al. (2011).
59.
Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2009), pp. 1–61.
60.
See Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213 and International Society for Reef Studies (2008).
61.
Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2009), pp. 1–61.
62.
Fabricius et al. (2011), pp. 165–169.
63.
Fabricius et al. (2011), pp. 165–169.
64.
Rogers and Laffoley (2011), pp. 1–18.
65.
Veron et al. (2009), pp. 1428–1436.
66.
Westmacott et al. (2000).
67.
According to JICA (2011).
68.
Similar problems exist in other atolls such as Kiribati, according to Loughry and McAdam (2008).
69.
Burke et al. (2011).
70.
See Westmacott et al. (2000) and Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
71.
Barnett and Adger (2003), p. 325.
72.
Caron (1990), pp. 621–653.
73.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
74.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
75.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
76.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
77.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
78.
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
79.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
80.
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
81.
Veron et al. (2009), pp. 1428–1436.
82.
Yamano et al. (2011).
83.
Rogers and Laffoley (2011), pp. 1–18.
84.
Veron et al. (2009), pp. 1428–1436.
85.
Veron et al. (2009), pp. 1428–1436.
86.
The Earth’s orbit around the Sun is elliptical, and thus the effect of the Sun on the tidal range will vary throughout the year.
87.
Rakova (2009).
88.
According to JICA (2011).
89.
Maclellan (2009).
90.
Rakova (2009).
91.
Displacement Solutions (2009), p. 18.
92.
Rakova (2009).
93.
Rakova (2009).
94.
Rakova (2009).
95.
Rakova (2009).
96.
Rakova (2009).
97.
This is a type of tropical plant that is grown as a root vegetable and as a leaf vegetable. It can be grown in paddy fields or upland areas.
98.
Rakova (2009).
99.
Rakova (2009).
100.
South Capitol Street 2011.
101.
Rakova (2009).
102.
Rakova (2009).
103.
Rakova (2009).
104.
Displacement Solutions (2009), p. 18.
105.
Rakova (2009).
106.
Displacement Solutions (2009), p. 19.
107.
Displacement Solutions (2009), p. 18.
108.
Displacement Solutions (2009), p. 18.
109.
Redfearn 2011 USA, Papua New Guinea. The documentary was nominated for an Oscar at the 83^rd Annual Academy Awards in 2011.
110.
Rakova (2009).
111.
Rakova (2009).
112.
Rakova (2009).
113.
Adapted from a table detailing the vulnerability of Small Island States, in Pelling and Uitto (2001).
114.
Pelling and Uitto (2001).
115.
Pelling and Uitto (2001).
116.
This country currently faces many challenges, such as overcrowding, land scarcity and poor urban conditions. Particularly important is the threat posed by sea level rise, as a large amount of the country is situated in the low-lying Ganges-Brahmaputra River Delta. The area is thus at high risk from the effects of storm surges which can lead to the inundation of coastal lands where millions of people live. It has been estimated that half of Bangladesh’s population lives in areas less than 5 m below sea level. See Tasnim (2010).
117.
Landsea et al. (2006).
118.
See Shibayama et al. (2009) and Tasnim (2010).
119.
Shibayama et al. (2009).
120.
Tasnim (2010).
121.
Shibayama et al. (2009).
122.
According to the Disaster Management Centre, as reported by Tasnim (2010).
123.
Shibayama et al. (2009).
124.
Shibayama et al. (2009).
125.
Ahmed (2011).
126.
Mimura et al. (2007) (A chapter within the IPCC 4AR).
127.
Warner et al. (2009).
128.
Imamura and Van To (1997), pp. 71–87.
129.
See Munich Re (2009).
130.
Maclellan (2009).
131.
Maclellan (2009).
132.
BBC (2009).
133.
Kawai et al. (2008).
134.
Kawai et al. (2008).
135.
Fitchett (1987), pp. 1–7.
136.
Fitchett (1987), pp. 1–7.
137.
Fitchett (1987), pp. 1–7.
138.
Webb and Kench (2010), pp. 234–246.
139.
Nordhaus (2006).
140.
Webster et al. (2005), pp. 1844–1846.
141.
Elsner et al. (2008), pp. 92–94.
142.
See of example Landsea et al. (2006), pp. 452–454.
143.
Mousavi et al. (2011), pp. 575–597.
144.
Knutson and Tuleya (2004), pp. 2458–2468.
145.
See Emanuel et al. (2008), pp. 347–367, Chan (2006), p. 1713, and Vecchi et al. (2008).
146.
Pielke (2007) and Pielke and Landsea (1998), pp. 621–631.
147.
Knutson et al. (2010), pp. 157–163.
148.
Knutson et al. (2010), pp. 157–163.
149.
Kawai et al. (2008).
150.
Mousavi et al. (2011), pp. 575–597.
151.
Mousavi et al. (2011), pp. 575–597.
152.
Pielke (2007) and Pielke and Landsea (1998), pp. 621–631.
153.
Hallegatte (2007), pp. 1956–1966. For a more detailed review of the potential losses to the US see Schmidt (2010).
154.
Mendelsohn et al. (2012).
155.
Esteban et al. (2013).
156.
Stromberg et al. (2011), pp. 1079–1090.
157.
Mimura et al. (2007) (A chapter within the IPCC 4AR).
158.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
159.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
160.
Though other events such as volcanic eruptions or landslides also generate them.
161.
Mikami et al. (2012), pp. 1–26.
162.
For example the Mentawai tsunami in Indonesia, see Shibayama et al. (2012). Also the 2010 Chilean tsunami Mikami et al. (2012), pp. 529–534.
163.
Maclellan (2009).
164.
Fritz et al. (2006), pp. 137–154.
165.
An estimated 40 % of the lands in the Maldives were inundated, see Lamb (2005).
166.
Fritz et al. (2006), pp. 137–154.
167.
Fritz et al. (2006), pp. 137–154.
168.
Fritz et al. (2006), pp. 137–154 and Lamb (2005).
169.
Fritz et al. (2006), pp. 137–154.
170.
Mikami et al. (2011a, b).
171.
Mikami et al. (2011a, b).
172.
Mikami et al. (2011a, b).
173.
Kunkel et al. (2006).
174.
Although there is a general belief that coastal forests can help to protect against a tsunami, it is not always clear whether they actually offer much protection. Moreover, as observed, the forests can often suffer much damage themselves. Indeed, for the stronger events, such as in this case, the tsunami can rip trees and carry them inland, increasing thus the damage to infrastructure. This process can result in greater damage to human settlements, with the trees becoming floating debris that can then hit both structures and individuals.
175.
Mikami et al. (2012).
176.
Mori et al. (2010), pp. 15–19.
177.
Mori et al. (2010), pp. 15–19.
178.
Mori et al. (2010), pp. 15–19.
179.
Mori et al. (2010), pp. 15–19.
180.
Hemer et al. (2010), pp. 475–491.
181.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
182.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
183.
Storlazzi et al. (2011).
184.
Storlazzi et al. (2011).
185.
Storlazzi et al. (2011).
186.
Kench et al. (2009), pp. 180–213.
187.
Sheppard et al. (2005), pp. 223–234.
188.
Sheppard et al. (2005), p. 224.
189.
Sheppard et al. (2005), p. 226.
190.
Sheppard et al. (2005), p. 223.
191.
Also on the friction of the sediment particles, for more details see Hearn (1999), pp. 30007–30019.
192.
Hearn (1999), pp. 30007–30019.
193.
Kench and Cowell (2002), pp. 645–656.
194.
Kench et al. (2009), p. 201.
195.
Webb and Kench (2010), pp. 234–246.
196.
Webb and Kench (2010), pp. 234–246.
197.
Kench et al. (2009), p. 186.
198.
Kench et al. (2009), p. 207.
199.
Sato and Yokoki (2010), p. 2.
200.
Accretion means the accumulation of sediments in a certain area, i.e. the opposite of erosion.
201.
Sato and Yokoki (2010), p. 4.
202.
Beach nourishment describes an engineering process by which some sand which is lost (typically due to the longshore transport process, where the waves move the sand along the shore from one place to the next) is replaced with sand which is sourced from a different area. In this way, the shoreline’s profile can be maintained at a certain location.
203.
Sato and Yokoki (2010), pp. 1–2.
204.
Sato and Yokoki (2010), p. 5.
205.
As calculated by Fujita et al. (2009), pp. 29–45.
206.
Sato and Yokoki (2010), p. 9.
207.
Sato and Yokoki (2010), p. 11.
208.
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
209.
Sato and Yokoki (2010), pp. 1–15.
210.
The height of waves is generally dependant on depth of the water, with deeper water meaning that higher waves are possible in a given area.
211.
Storlazzi et al. (2011), p. 94.
212.
Storlazzi et al. (2011), p. 83.
213.
Storlazzi et al. (2011), p. 83.
214.
According to the CIA (2012).
215.
According to the Japan International Cooperation Agency JICA (2011).
216.
Fitchett (1987), p. 1.
217.
Fitchett (1987), p. 1.
218.
According to JICA (2011), p. 4.
219.
Islets, or “coral islands” are the inhabitable part of atolls. It is formed from the dead skeleton of corals and foraminifera, and are the only part of the atoll which are above the sea surface. An atoll typically has several islets or “coral islands” on its surface, as seen in Fig. 2.8. Thus, Fongafale Islet is located within the capital atoll of Funafati.
220.
Webb (2005), pp. 1–17.
221.
JICA (2011), p. 4.
222.
JICA (2011), p. 1.
223.
Maragos et al. (1973).
224.
Webb (2005), pp. 1–17.
225.
Webb (2005), pp. 1–17.
226.
Webb and Kench (2010).
227.
Webb (2005), pp. 1–17.
228.
Warmer et al. (2009), p. 9.
229.
JICA (2011), p. 5.
230.
JICA (2011), p. 5.
231.
JICA (2011), p. 8.
232.
Tuvalu has been a very popular subject in the media in the last years. Many articles have been written about the subject, see for example Reuters (2007) or Horner and Le Gallic (2004).
233.
BBC (2011).
234.
Maclellan (2009), p. 17.
235.
Maas and Carius (2012), p. 655.
236.
UNFCCC (2007).
237.
Magnan et al. (2011), p. 3.
238.
Magnan et al. (2011), p. 3.
239.
Maas and Carius (2012), p. 655.
240.
Magnan et al. (2011), p. 3.
241.
Maclellan (2009), p. 17.
242.
The case of Niue is an interesting one, where a typhoon in 2004 devastated the island and transformed the island into a net importer of food for some time, see Maas and Carius (2012), p. 655.
243.
Barnett and Campbell (2010), p. 33.
244.
Barnett and Campbell (2010), pp. 15–17.
245.
Onuma and Arino (2011), pp. 639–656.
246.
Barnett and Campbell (2010), p. 9.
247.
It is important to stress the strong role that the chief of the villages (which are given the name of “Matai”) plays in a society that has strong social connections, and how such social conditions allow for a quick decision-making process on how to adapt to the results of natural disasters. See Mikami et al. (2011a, b).
248.
A village for example might be located in an area where the water flows from gravity from the mountain, and relocating it to the top might remove this water supply and require finding a new one. This in turn raises the problems of watershed managing, the possibility of needing pumps (and the costs involved in operating them, etc.). This information came from the problems faced by a Samoan village trying to relocate after the tsunami, as described in an email response by Kevin Petrini of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to the CCD (Climate Change and Development) Community to the “Providing Additionality in Adaptation Projects – Examples; Experiences” thread. Email in file with authors.
249.
Barnett and Campbell (2010), pp. 1–19.
250.
Morita (2008), p. 67.
251.
Warner et al. (2009), p. 3.
252.
Other sources providing adaptation funds or exploring how to do it would include the World Bank, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Organisation of American States (OAS), Regional Development Banks, or International Financial Institutions (including Swiss RE or Citigroup, for example), the Special Climate Change Fund, or the Least Developed Countries Fund as listed in Warner et al. (2009), pp. 34–35 and Morita (2008), p. 68.
253.
Morita (2008), p. 69.
254.
A total of US$230 million, according to Morita (2008), p. 70.
255.
As commented by Brian Dawson of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) to the CCD (Climate Change and Development) Community to the “Providing Additionality in Adaptation Projects – Examples; Experiences” thread. Email in file with authors.
256.
As commented by Brian Dawson of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) to the CCD (Climate Change and Development) Community to the “Providing Additionality in Adaptation Projects – Examples; Experiences” thread. Email in file with authors.
257.
As commented by Brian Dawson of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) to the CCD (Climate Change and Development) Community to the “Providing Additionality in Adaptation Projects – Examples; Experiences” thread. Email in file with authors.
258.
Warner et al. (2009), p. 27.
259.
Warner et al. (2009), p. 28.
260.
Between AU $365 and 668 m, according to Maclellan (2009), p. 9.
261.
Okubo and Onuma (2010), pp. 69–80.
262.
Okubo and Onuma (2010), pp. 69–80.
263.
Okubo and Onuma (2010), pp. 69–80.
264.
Thomas Cook Travel Inflight Travel Magazine (2012), pp. 94–100.
265.
In fact, there is anecdotal evidence how in places like Bangladesh already how farmers in coastal areas are shifting from crop cultivation to crab farming in areas that were once fields, as unless embankments are repaired water can sometimes enter during high tides, see Ahmed (2011).
266.
Warner et al. (2009), p. 3.
267.
Warner et al. (2009), p. 33.
268.
Warner et al. (2009), p. 34.
269.
Warner et al. (2009), p. 33.
270.
As recognised by many authors, see for example Atapattu (2009), McAdam (2011), or Söderbergh (2011).
271.
IOM (2008), p. 38.
272.
Of course it is also possible to think that migration is actually a failure to adapt to changing weather conditions, though it also has to be understood that humans are not always able to adapt to a changing environment and thus migration is part of the natural adaptation process. Primitive human societies in many areas of the world have been described as hunters-gatherers, constantly moving in a nomadic fashion from one area to the next. Thus, migration appears as a natural way in which humans adapted to changes in their environment.
273.
McAdam (2011), pp. 102–137.
274.
Philippe Bancour of the IOM on his keynote speak at the “Climate Change and Migration in the South Pacific Region: Policy Perspectives”, organised by the Institute of Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, 9-10^th July, 2009.
275.
Farbotko and Lazrus (2011), p. 7.
276.
As mentioned in Loughry and McAdam (2008). The President of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Jurelang Zedkaia, also mentions relocation as an “undeniable threat” in his keynote address to the “Threatened Island Nations Conference” at Columbia University on the 24 May 2011.
277.
Boege (2010), p. 19.
278.
Boege (2010), though these statistics should be viewed with caution, as different authors appear to come up with a variety of statistics depending on how these are derived. In fact population in Kiribati has already been moved to the atoll of South Tarawa, which has resulted in over half of the population of Kiribati living there and prompting the government in the 1990s to relocate some 5,000 to outlying atolls, according to Loughry and McAdam (2008).
279.
See Farbotko and Lazrus (2011), p. 7.
280.
IOM (2007), p. 6.
281.
IOM (2007), p. 6.
282.
IOM (2007), p. 6.
283.
Boege (2010), p. 21.
284.
As summarised in Boege (2010).
285.
As summarised in Boege (2010).
286.
McAdam (2011), pp. 102–137.
287.
McAdam (2011), pp. 102–137.
288.
McAdam (2011), pp. 102–137.
289.
Sinane et al. (2010), para. 3.
290.
AOSIS (2008).
291.
Kench et al. (2009), p. 204 and Fritz et al. (2006), p. 144.
292.
Maclellan (2009), p. 27.
293.
Maclellan (2009), p. 23.
294.
During a private conversation at Waseda University in the June 2011, Tokyo, Japan.
295.
Ewing (2010), pp. 261–286.
296.
Ewing (2010), pp. 261–286.
297.
See Knutson and Tuleya (2004), p. 2458 or Oouchi et al. (2006), p. 271.
298.
Mori et al. (2010), p. 17.
299.
Not necessarily always, but in general these effects appear to be ignored.
300.
This significant wave height is estimated as the average of the top one-third of the waves in a given storm.
301.
Esteban et al. (2011).
302.
Fifty years was the assumed design life of rubble mound breakwaters, though it should be noted that typically they are designed with a life of 30 years.
303.
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
304.
The figure plots the effect that sea level has on different values of water depth (h), for a beach slope θ = 1:30 and a significant wave height outside the barrier reef H _s = 9 m.
305.
This run-up is defined as the vertical distance above still water which is reached by the waves as they rush up the seaside slope of the structure.
306.
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
307.
Taking into account the requirement for increased armour and for the breakwater to be built to a higher level. See Esteban et al. (2011).
308.
Okayasu and Sakai (2006), pp. 4883–4893.
309.
Takagi et al. (2011), p. 37.
310.
The surf zone is the area near the coastline where the waves break. These breaking waves can exert very large forces on structures.
311.
Goda (2000), p. 443.
312.
Associated with the existence of stress acting on the water due to the presence of wave motion (called radiation stress).
313.
The magnitude of the radiation stress may change due to variations in the wave height as it propagates towards the coastline (due to shoaling and wave breaking), and hence this may cause changes in the inclination of the mean water level.
314.
See Kench et al. (2009), p. 204, and Fritz et al. (2006), p. 144.

References

Ahmed J (2011) Bangladesh farmers fatten crabs on polluted land. BBC News, 20 February 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12046805. Accessed 25 Feb 2011
Allison I, Bindoff NL, Bindschadler RA, Cox PM, de Noblet N, England MH, Francis JE, Gruber N, Haywood AM, Karoly DJ, Kaser G, Le Quéré C, Lenton TM, Mann ME, McNeil BI, Pitman AJ, Rahmstorf S, Rignot E, Schellnhuber HJ, Schneider SH, Sherwood SC, Somerville RCJ, Steffen K, Steig EJ, Visbeck M, Weaver AJ (2009) “Copenhagen Diagnosis”. The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: updating the world on the latest climate science. http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/read/default.html. Accessed 26 Jan 2010
AOSIS (2008) Global climate change and small island developing states: financing adaptation. Green Paper. http://www.un.int/wcm/webdav/site/suriname/shared/documents/papers/CLIMATECHANGEAOSIS_GreenPaper_Feb52008_.pdf. Accessed 14 March 2013
Atapattu S (2009) Climate change, human rights, and forced migration: implications for international law. Wisconsin Int Law J 27:607
Google Scholar
Barnett J (2004) Global warming and the security of atoll-countries. McMillan Brown Centre for Pacific Studies, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, pp 191–215. http://www.upf.pf/IMG/pdf/12_Barnett.pdf. Accessed 28 Mar 2012
Barnett J, Adger WN (2003) Climate dangers and atoll countries. Clim Chang 61:321–337
Article Google Scholar
Barnett J, Campbell J (2010) Climate change and small island states: power, knowledge, and the South Pacific, Earthscan, London
Google Scholar
BBC (2009) Taiwan leader in typhoon apology. 15 August 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8202821.stm. Accessed 18 Dec 2011
BBC (2011) Tokelau plans an all-renewable future. Concerning islands that are pursuing an all-renewable future. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16109449. Accessed 18 Dec 2011
Bindoff et al (2007) Climate change the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Google Scholar
Boege V (2010) Challenges and pitfalls of resettlement measures: experiences in the Pacific Region. Paper presented at the ESF-UniBi-ZiF research conference on environmental change and migration: from vulnerabilities to capabilities, Bad Salzuflen, 5–9 December 2010. COMCAD Working Papers, No. 12
Google Scholar
Burke L, Reytar K, Spalding M, Perry A (2011) Reefs at risk revisited. World Resources Institute. http://www.wri.org/. Accessed 13 May 2012
Caron D (1990) When law makes climate change worse: rethinking the law of baselines in light of a rising sea level. Ecol Law Q 17:621–653
Google Scholar
Chan JCL (2006) Comment on changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 311(5768):1713. doi:10.1126/science.112152
Article Google Scholar
CIA (2012) The World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html. Accessed 28 May 2012
Climate Prediction Centre (2005) Frequently asked questions about El Niño and La Niña. National Centers for Environmental Prediction. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#DIFFER. Accessed 28 Feb 2011
Conisbee M, Simms A (2003) Environmental refugees – the case for recognition, Nef. http://www.alofatuvalu.tv/FR/12_liens/12_articles_rapports/Refugees_A.Simms.pdf. ISBN 1 899 407 70 7
Displacement Solutions (2009) Climate change displaced persons and housing, land and property rights. Preliminary strategies for rights-based planning and programming to resolve climate-induced displacement. Report by displacement solutions. http://displacementsolutions.org/files/documents/DS_Climate_change_strategies.pdf. Accessed 19 Dec 2011
Done TJ (1992) Phase shifts in coral reef communities and their ecological significance. Hydrobiologia 247:121–132
Article Google Scholar
Elsner JB, Kossin JP, Jagger TH (2008) The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature 455:92–94
Article Google Scholar
Emanuel K, Sundararajan R, Williams J (2008) Hurricanes and global warming. Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89(3):347–367. doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347
Article Google Scholar
Ericson JP, Vorosmarty CJ, Dingman SL, Ward LG, Meybeck M (2006) Effective sea-level rise and deltas: causes of change and human dimension implications. Global Planet Change 50:63–82
Article Google Scholar
Esteban M, Takagi H, Shibayama T (2011) Sea level rise and the increase in rubble mound breakwater damage. In: Proceedings of international conference on coastal structures, Yokohama, 5–9 September 2011
Google Scholar
Esteban M, Stromberg P, Gasparatos A, Thomsom-Pomeroy D (2013) Global warming and tropical cyclone damage in the Philippines. J Clim Res 56:51–60
Google Scholar
Ewing L (2010) Sea level rise: major implications to coastal engineering and coastal management tsunami forces on structures, chapter 36, Handbook of coastal and ocean engineering. World Scientific, Singapore, pp 261–286
Google Scholar
Fabricius KE, Langdon C, Uthicke S, Humphrey C, Noonan S, De’ath G, Okazaki R, Muehllehner N, Glas MS, Lough JM (2011) Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. Nat Clim Change 1:165–169
Article Google Scholar
Farbotko C, Lazrus H (2011) The first climate refugees? Contesting global narratives of climate change in Tuvalu. Glob Environ Change. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.11.014
Fitchett K (1987) Physical effects of hurricane Bebe upon Funafati atoll, Tuvalu. Aust Geogr 18(1):1–7
Article Google Scholar
Fritz H, Synolakis CE, McAdoo B (2006) Maldives Field Survey after the December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Earthq Spectra 22(S3):137–154
Article Google Scholar
Fujita K, Osawa Y, Kayanne H, Ide Y, Yamano H (2009) Distribution and sediment production of large benthic foraminifers on reef flats of the Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands. Coral Reefs 28:29–45
Article Google Scholar
Goda Y (2000) Random seas and design of maritime structures. World Scientific, Singapore
Book Google Scholar
Guinotte JM, Buddemeier RW, Kleypas JA (2003) Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin. Coral Reefs 22:551–558
Article Google Scholar
Hallegatte S (2007) The use of synthetic hurricane tracks in risk analysis and climate change damage assessment. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 46(11):1956–1966
Article Google Scholar
Hearn CJ (1999) Wave-breaking hydrodynamics within coral reef systems and the effect of changing relative sea level. J Geophys Res 104(C12):30007–30019
Article Google Scholar
Hemer MA, Church JA, Hunter JR (2010) Variability and trends in the directional wave climate of the Southern Hemisphere. Int J Climatol 30:475–491
Google Scholar
Hoegh-Guldberg O, Ortiz JC, Dove S (2011) The future of coral reef. Science 334:1494–1495
Article Google Scholar
Horner C, Le Gallic G (2004) The disappearing of Tuvalu: trouble in paradise, documentary. http://www.der.org/films/the-disappearing-of-tuvalu.html. Accessed 31 July 2012
Huntington BE, Karnauskas M, Lirman D (2011) Corals fail to recover at a Caribbean marine reserve despite ten years of reserve designation. Coral Reefs 30:1077–1085
Article Google Scholar
Imamura F, Van To D (1997) Flood and Typhoon Disasters in Viet Nam in the half century since 1950. J Nat Hazard 15:71–87
Article Google Scholar
International Society for Reef Studies (2008) Coral reefs and ocean acidification, Briefing Paper 5. http://www.fit.edu/isrs/documents/ISRS_BP_ocean_acid_final28jan2008.pdf. Accessed 5 Apr 2011
IOM (2007) Discussion note: migration and the environment. MC/INF/288, 1 November 2007. International Organization for Migration (IOM). http://www.iom.int/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/about_iom/en/council/94/MC_INF_288.pdf. Accessed 15 Feb 2012
IOM (2008) Migration and climate change. IOM migration research series no. 31. http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/free/MRS-31_EN.pdf. Accessed 15 Dec 2012
JICA (2011) Study for assessment of ecosystem, coastal erosion and protection/rehabilitation of damaged area in Tuvalu, Japan International Cooperation Agency, Final report, January 2011
Google Scholar
Johnson G (2011) High tides flood low-lying atolls in Marshalls. Marianas Variety Newspaper. http://www.mvariety.com/2011022034428/local-news/high-tides-flood-low-lying-atolls-in-marshalls.php. Accessed 28 Feb 2011
Kawai H, Hashimoto N, Matsuura K (2008) Estimation of extreme storm water level in Japanese bays by using stochastic typhoon model and tide observation data. In: Proceedings of the international offshore and polar engineering conference, Vancouver, 6–11 July 2008
Google Scholar
Kench PS, Cowell PJ (2002) The morphological response of atoll islands to sea-level rise: part 2. Application of the modified shoreface translation model (STM). Journal of Coastal Research 34:645–656
Google Scholar
Kench PS, Perry CT, Spencer T (2009) Coral reefs. Chapter 7. In: Slaymaker O, Spencer T, Embleton-Hamann C (eds) Geomorphology and global environmental change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 180–213
Google Scholar
Kleypas J, Gattuso JP (2010) Coral reef. In: Cleveland CJ (ed) Encyclopedia of Earth. Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment, Washington (First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth October 18, 2006; Last revised March 28, 2010. http://eoearth.org/article/Coral_reef. Accessed 27 May 2010)
Google Scholar
Kleypas J, Buddemeier R, Archer D, Gattuso J, Landon C, Opdyke B (1999) Geochemical consequences of increased carbon dioxide in coral reefs. Science 284:118–120
Article Google Scholar
Knutson TR, Tuleya RE (2004) Impact of CO₂-induced warming on simulated Hurricane intensity and precipitation sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. J Clim 17(18):3477–3495
Article Google Scholar
Knutson T, McBride J, Chan J, Emanuel K, Holland G, Landsea C, Held I, Kossin J, Srivastava A, Sugi M (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat Geosci 3(3):157–163. doi:10.1038/ngeo779
Article Google Scholar
Kunkel CM, Hallberg RW, Oppenheimer M (2006) Coral reefs reduce tsunami impact in model simulations. Geophys Res Lett 33(23), L23612. doi:10.1029/2006GL027892
Article Google Scholar
Lamb S (2005) Paradise (soon to be) Lost. Spiegel Online, February 15, 2005. http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,341669,00.html. Accessed 26 Mar 2012
Landsea CW, Harper BA et al (2006) Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science 313(5786):452–454
Article Google Scholar
Loughry M, McAdam J (2008) Kiribati – relocation and adaptation. Forced migration review. http://www.fmreview.org/FMRpdfs/FMR31/FMR31.pdf. Accessed 27 Mar 2012
Lyytimaki J, Hilden M (2011) Coping with ecological thresholds in coastal areas: results from an international expert survey. Coastal Manage 39(6):598–612
Article Google Scholar
Maas A, Carius A (2012) Territorial integrity and sovereignty: climate change and security in the Pacific and beyond. In: Scheffran J et al (eds) Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 651–665
Chapter Google Scholar
Maclellan N (2009) The future is here: climate change in the Pacific. Oxfam report. www.oxfam.org.au/climate-change. Accessed 23 Dec 2011
Magnan A, Duvat V, Pirazzoli P, Woppelmann G (2011) In light of climate change, can coral arphipelagos be defined as vulnerable “resource systems”? In: 4th congress of the Asia & Pacific network, Paris, 14–16 September 2011 (in French)
Google Scholar
Maragos JE, Baines GBK, Beveridge PJ (1973) Tropical Cyclone Bebe creates a new land formation on Funafuti Atoll. Science 181:1161–1164
Article Google Scholar
McAdam J (2011) Refusing refuge in the Pacific: (de)constructing climate-induced displacement in international law. In: Piguet E, Pécoud A, de Guchteneire P (eds) Migration, environment and climate change. UNESCO, Paris, pp 102–137
Google Scholar
Mendelsohn R, Emanuel K, Chonabayashi S, Bakkensen L (2012) The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nat Clim Change 2:205–209
Article Google Scholar
Mikami T, Shibayama T, Matsumaru R, Takagi H, Faainuseiamalie L, Chanmow I (2011a) Field survey and analysis of the Tsunami Disaster in the Samoan Islands, 2009. In: Proceedings of coastal structures conference, Yokohama, 2011
Google Scholar
Mikami T, Shibayama T, Takewaka S, Esteban M, Ohira K, Aranguiz R, Villagran M, Ayala A (2011b) Field survey of tsunami disaster in Chile 2010. J Jpn Soc Civil Eng, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering) 67(2):529–534 (in Japanese)
Google Scholar
Mikami T, Shibayama T, Esteban M, Matsumaru R (2012) Field survey of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures. Coastal Eng J 54(1):1250011/1-1250011/26
Article Google Scholar
Mimura et al (2007) Small islands. Climate change, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the 4^th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Google Scholar
Mori N, Yasuda T, Mase H, Tom T, Oku Y (2010) Projection of extreme wave climate change under global warming. Hydrol Res Lett 4:15–19
Article Google Scholar
Morita K (2008) A study of financing system possibilities for adaptation to climate change –case study of a small island state. J Int Dev 7(2). doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/1/412001
Mousavi ME, Irish JL, Frey AE, Olivera F, Edge BL (2011) Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level on coastal flooding. Clim Change 104:575–597
Article Google Scholar
Munich Re (2009) Natural disasters 1980–2008, 10 costliest typhoons ordered by insured losses. http://www.munichre.com/. Accessed 28 Apr 2009
Nordhaus WD (2006) The economics of hurricanes in the United States. In: Annual meetings of the American Economic Association, Boston
Google Scholar
Okamatsu A (2005) Problems and prospects of international legal disputes on climate change. Available at http://web.fu-berlin.de/ffu/akumwelt/bc2005/papers/okamatsu_bc2005.pdf. Accessed 15 Oct 2012
Okayasu A, Sakai K (2006) Effect of sea level rise on sliding distance of a caisson breakwater –optimization with probabilistic design method. In: Proceedings of 30th international conference on coastal engineering, ASCE, pp 4883–4893
Google Scholar
Okubo N, Onuma A (2010) A mixture of fragments and seedlings is environmentally optimal for coral transplantation. J Jpn Coral Reef Soc 12:69–80 (in Japanese)
Article Google Scholar
Onuma A, Arino Y (2011) Greenhouse gas emission, mitigation and innovation of adaptation technology in a north–south economy. Environ Dev Econ 16:639–656
Article Google Scholar
Oouchi K, Yoshimura J, Yoshimura H, Mizuta R, Kusunoki S, Noda A (2006) Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20km-mesh global atmospheric model. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 84(2):259–276
Article Google Scholar
Pelling M, Uitto JI (2001) Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change, Environ Hazards 3:49–62
Article Google Scholar
Pielke RA Jr (2007) Future economic damage from tropical cyclones. Sensitivities to societal and climate changes. Philos Trans R Soc. doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2086
Pielke RA, Landsea CW (1998) Normalized Hurricane damages in the United States: 1925–95. Weather Forecasting 13:621–631
Article Google Scholar
Rakova U (2009) How-to guide for environmental refugees. OurWorld 2.0. http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/how-to-guide-for-environmental-refugees/. Accessed 25 Feb 2011
Reaser JK, Pomerance R, Thomas PO (2000) Coral bleaching and global climate change: scientific findings and policy recommendations. Conserv Biol 14:1500–1511
Article Google Scholar
Reuters (2007) Tuvalu about to disappear into the ocean, 13 Sept 2007. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2007/09/13/environment-tuvalu-dc-idUKSEO11194920070913. Accessed 31 July 2012
Rogers AD, Laffoley D d’A (2011) International earth system expert workshop on ocean stresses and impacts. Summary report. IPSO, Oxford, pp 1–18
Google Scholar
Sato D, Yokoki H (2010) Numerical calculation on shoreline conservation in Majuro Atoll, The Marshall Islands. In: Proceedings of the international conference on coastal engineering, 32, Shanghai. http://journals.tdl.org/ICCE/
Schmidt S (2010) Economic losses from tropical cyclones in the USA – as assessment of the impact of climate change and socio-economic effects. PhD Thesis at the Technical University of Berlin
Google Scholar
Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2009) Scientific synthesis of the impacts of ocean acidification on marine biodiversity. Montreal, Technical Series No. 46, pp 1–61
Google Scholar
Sheppard C, Dixon DJ, Gourlay M, Sheppard A, Payet R (2005) Coral mortality increases wave energy reaching shores protected by reef flats: examples from the Seychelles. Estuar Coastal Shelf Sci 64:223–234
Article Google Scholar
Shibayama T, Tajima Y, Kakinuma T, Nobuoka H, Yasuda T, Hsan RA, Rahman M, Islam MS (2009) Field survey of Storm Surge Disaster due to cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh. In: Proceedings of coastal dynamics conference, Tokyo, 7–11 September 2009
Google Scholar
Shibayama T, Esteban M, Ohira K, Mikami T, Sasaki J, Suzuki T, Achiairi H, Widodo T (2012) Field survey of tsunami disaster on Sipora Island, Indonesia after Sumatra earthquake 2010. In: PIANC-COPEDEC 8th international conference on coastal and port engineering in developing countries, Chennai, 20–24 February 2012
Google Scholar
Sinane K, David G, Pennober G, Troadec R (2010) Fragilisation et modification des formations littorals meubles sur l’ile d’Anjouan (Comores): Quand l’erosion d’origine anthropique se conjugue au changement climatique. VertigO 10(3) (in French)
Google Scholar
Söderbergh C (2011) Human rights in a warmer world: the case of climate change displacement, Working Paper. http://lup.lub.lu.se/record/1774900. Accessed 5 Jan 2012
Solomon et al (2007) Climate change: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Google Scholar
Stern N (2006) Stern review on the economics of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Google Scholar
Storlazzi CD, Elias E, Field ME, Presto MK (2011) Numerical modelling of the impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment transport. Coral Reefs. doi:10.1007/s00338-011-0723-9
Stromberg P, Esteban M, Gasparatos A (2011) Climate change effects on mitigation measures: the case of extreme wind events and Philippines’ biofuel plan. J Environ Sci Policy 14(8):1079–1090
Article Google Scholar
Takagi H, Kashihara H, Esteban M, Shibayama T (2011) Assessment of future stability of breakwaters under climate change. Coastal Eng J 53(1):21–39
Article Google Scholar
Tasnim KM (2010) Investigation of the physical characteristics of dynamic topography change due to cyclone Sidr around Kuakata Beach. Dept of Civil engineering Master Thesis, University of Tokyo, Tokyo
Google Scholar
Thomas Cook (2012) Travel Inflight Travel Magazine, Feb/Mar 2012 Issue, pp 94–100
Google Scholar
UNFCCC (2007) Climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing countries. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/impacts.pdf. Accessed 23 Mar 2012
USACE (2011) Sea-level change considerations for civil work programs. Circular No. 1165-2-212. 1 October 2011. U.S. Army Corps of Engineering. Expires 30 September 2013
Google Scholar
Vecchi GA, Swanson KL, Soden BJ (2008) Whither Hurricane activity? Science 322:687. doi:10.1126/science.1164396
Vermeer M, Rahmstorf SPNAS (2009) Projections of future sea level becoming more dire. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(51):21461–21462. doi:10.1073/pnas.0912878107
Article Google Scholar
Veron JEN, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Lenton TM, Lough JM, Obura DO, Pearce-Kelly P, Sheppard CRC, Spalding M, Stafford-Smit MG, Rogers AD (2009) The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO₂. Mar Pollut Bull 58:1428–1436
Article Google Scholar
Warmer et al (2009) In search of shelter: mapping the effects of climate change on human migration and displacement. Report for care. http://www.care.org/getinvolved/advocacy/pdfs/Migration_Report.pdf. Accessed 29 Dec 2011
Warner K et al (2009) Global climate change and small island developing states: financing adaptation. http://www.careclimatechange.org. Accessed 21 Dec 2011
Warrick et al (1996) Sea level changes in the Bay of Bengal. In: Warrick RA, Ahmad QK (eds) The implications of climate and sea level change for Bangladesh. Kluwer, Dordrecht
Chapter Google Scholar
Wassmann R, Hien NX, Hoanh CT, Tuong TP (2004) Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production. Clim Change 66:89–107
Article Google Scholar
Webb A (2005) Tuvalu Technical Report - coastal change analysis using multi-temporal image comparisons-Funafuti Atoll. EU EDF 8/9 SOPCA Project Report 54
Google Scholar
Webb AP, Kench PS (2010) The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific. Glob Planet Change 72:234–246. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003
Article Google Scholar
Webster PJ, Holland GJ et al (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309(5742):1844–1846
Article Google Scholar
Westmacott S, Teleki K, Wells S, West JM (2000) Management of bleached and severely damaged coral reefs, International Union for the Conservation of Nature, Gland. http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/coralen.pdf. Accessed 16 Jun 2011
Woodworth PL (2005) Have there been large recent sea level changes in the Maldive Islands? Glob Planet Change 49:1–19
Article Google Scholar
Yamano H, Sugihara K, Nomura K (2011) Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures. Geophys Res Lett 38(4). doi:10.1029/2010GL046474

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Londrina, Brazil
Lilian Yamamoto
Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan
Miguel Esteban

Authors

Lilian Yamamoto
View author publications
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
Miguel Esteban
View author publications
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Yamamoto, L., Esteban, M. (2014). Climate Change and Its Effects on Atoll Island States. In: Atoll Island States and International Law. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38186-7_3

Download citation

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38186-7_3
Published: 09 July 2013
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-38185-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-38186-7
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawLaw and Criminology (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics