Abstract
This chapter addresses the following research question: “How should the diffusion of energy-efficient renovations be represented in a large System Dynamics simulation model? Further, what can be learned from that model” In order to answer this question, this chapter integrates insights from the analytical chapters 3 through 6 into a System Dynamics simulation model. The majority of this chapter is devoted to describing the structure and base behavior of the simulation model. In addition, this chapter presents selected insights from the analysis of the model and reports on model testing.
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Notes
- 1.
See page 44 or http://www.vensim.com/subscript.html, accessed 28 June 2011, for further information on subscripts.
- 2.
Remember that the market scope is limited to the buildings under renovation. Hence, this figure does not show the share of tenants renting paintjob or eeupgraded housing in the whole stock of buildings. It only refers to those buildings that are under renovation (see Sect. 7.5.1).
- 3.
Note that this figure is an educated assumption. The role of this structure is to explain how changes of the actual emissions impact on the power of the advocacy coalition. The dynamics that this structure produces are rather insensitive to the precise figure set for the Level of yearly emissions of CO \(_{2}\) compatible with the \(2^{\circ }\) goal.
- 4.
Remember that I only consider energy costs for space heating. In reality, the side-costs of rented apartments also include the energy costs used for warm water. Yet, thermal energy efficiency in buildings is not causally related to the energy used for warm water. Hence, in reality, a tripling of energy prices would probably increase the cost of renting by about 20–30 %, including warm water.
- 5.
Such data would allow to evaluate the quality of the simulation model also with quantitative procedures. However, when such numerical information was available I used it to develop and calibrate the model. Unfortunately, this means that the data can no longer be used in model testing. Testing a model with data that was used to calibrate it would be somewhat tautological.
References
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Müller, M.O. (2013). A Rich Model of the Diffusion Dynamics of Energy-Efficient Renovations. In: Diffusion Dynamics of Energy-Efficient Renovations. Lecture Notes in Energy, vol 14. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37175-2_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37175-2_7
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