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Life on the Move: Modeling the Effects of Climate-Driven Range Shifts with Integrodifference Equations

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Dispersal, Individual Movement and Spatial Ecology

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Mathematics ((LNMBIOS,volume 2071))

Abstract

Climate change is causing many species to shift their ranges. We analyze an integrodifference equation that combines growth, dispersal, and a shifting habitat in order to assess the impact of climate change on persistence. We apply this model to butterflies and show that over-dispersal and under-dispersal can both lead to extinction. We focus on the critical range-shift speed (for extinction), survey numerical methods for determining this speed, and introduce new analytic approximations for the critical shift speed. Finally, we apply our numerical methods and analytic approximations to a variety of redistribution kernels and show that critical-speed curves shed light on the complicated effects of dispersal on persistence in a changing climatic environment.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, 352420, Seattle, WA, USA

    Ying Zhou & Mark Kot

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  1. Ying Zhou
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Mathematical & Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Central Academic Building 632, Edmonton, T6G 2G1, Alberta, Canada

    Mark A. Lewis

  2. Mathematical Institute, Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Oxford, St. Giles Street 24-29, Oxford, OX1 3LB, United Kingdom

    Philip K. Maini

  3. Department of Mathematics, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, United Kingdom

    Sergei V. Petrovskii

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Zhou, Y., Kot, M. (2013). Life on the Move: Modeling the Effects of Climate-Driven Range Shifts with Integrodifference Equations. In: Lewis, M., Maini, P., Petrovskii, S. (eds) Dispersal, Individual Movement and Spatial Ecology. Lecture Notes in Mathematics(), vol 2071. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35497-7_9

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