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A Foresight Support System to Manage Knowledge on Information Society Evolution

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Social Informatics (SocInfo 2012)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNISA,volume 7710))

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Abstract

In this paper we present an intelligent knowledge fusion and decision support system tailored to manage information on future social and technological trends. It focuses on gathering and managing the rules that govern the evolution of selected information society technologies (IST) and their applications. The main idea of information gathering and processing here presented refers to so-called real-time expert Delphi, where an expert community works on the same research problems by responding to structured questionnaires, elaborating complex dynamical system models, providing recommendations, and verifying the models so arisen. The knowledge base is structured in layers that correspond to the selected kinds of information on the technology and social evolution, uses, markets, and management. An analytical engine uses labelled hypermultigraphs to process the mutual impacts of objects from each layer to elicit the technological evolution rules and calculate future trends and scenarios. The processing rules are represented within discrete-time and discrete-event control models. Multicriteria decision support procedures make it possible to aggregate individual expert recommendations. The resulting foresight support system can process uncertain information using a fuzzy-random-variable-based model, while a coupled reputation management system can verify collective expert judgments and assign trust vectors to experts and other sources of information.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Automatic Control and Biomedical Engineering, Decision Science Laboratory, AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-050, Kraków, Poland

    Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski

  2. International Centre for Decision Sciences and Forecasting, Progress & Business Foundation, 30-041, Kraków, Poland

    Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski

Authors
  1. Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Distributed Information Systems Laboratory (LSIR), School for Computer and Communication Science (I&C), EPFL-IC,, Bâtiment BC, Station 14, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland

    Karl Aberer

  2. Department of Sociology, ICS, University of Groningen, Grote Rozenstraat 31, 9712 TG, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Andreas Flache

  3. Groningen Center for Social Complexity Studies, Nettelbosje 2, 9747 AE, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Wander Jager

  4. Georgia Institute of Technology, KACB, room 3340,School of Computer Science, College of Computing, 266 Ferst Dr, 30332-0765, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Ling Liu

  5. Tsinghua University, Rm 1-308, FIT Building, 100084, Beijing, China

    Jie Tang

  6. Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS), Anna van Saksenlaan 10, 2593 HT, Den Haag, The Netherlands

    Christophe Guéret

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© 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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Skulimowski, A.M.J. (2012). A Foresight Support System to Manage Knowledge on Information Society Evolution. In: Aberer, K., Flache, A., Jager, W., Liu, L., Tang, J., Guéret, C. (eds) Social Informatics. SocInfo 2012. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 7710. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35386-4_19

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35386-4_19

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-35385-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-35386-4

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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