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Applications of Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics in Science and Engineering - Vol. 3 pp 63–99Cite as

A General Circulation Model en Route to Intraseasonal Monsoon Chaos

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Abstract

Since the seminal work of Lorenz, chaotic behaviour of truncated atmospheric equations bears conceptual grounds in the issue of weather predictability. As for climatic scales, low-order models of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system show chaotic motions as well. The gap to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been bridged in conceptual studies using a coarse spatial resolution—but temporally and physically resolved—tropospheric GCM. Cross sections of its attractor set across the boreal summer hint at an inverse period doubling route (‘out of chaos’) in the active-break cycle of the global monsoon system. These dynamics, best visible in integrals of motion, represent a distinct sub-regime of the seasonal cycle, borne in topological changes between spring and autumn bifurcations. Computational problems of first-generation simulations notwithstanding, the paper summarizes the GCM’s ‘geometry of behaviour’ and its observational analogues. The concluding conceptual discussion updates a ‘monsoon hypothesis’ and addresses hints at the dynamical status and potential evolution of the climate system.

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Acknowledgements

This paper is cordially devoted to the former Climate Dynamics Group, Berlin, with special gratitude to Ina Tschentscher, Klaus Worbs, Judith Perlwitz and Stefan Kroschk. Our report series started with results on the CCAS-B AGCM’s global monsoon and its individual branches in boreal summer [22] as presented at the 1993 EGS General Assembly—shortly after formation of the team, assigned to study the GCM’s behaviour in detail and to further work out the monsoon hypothesis [13]. The first visualization of a GCM’s monsoon dynamics was due to Andreas Hantzschk there (also 1994 at the WCRP monsoon conference). As a ‘wilding’ born in the winds of change in Germany, the group did not survive ‘subcritical’ funding. In a final act for 15 years, selected material was distributed at the 1997 IWM-1 workshop [21]. A post mortem collection of papers [24], including the 1994 update of the monsoon hypothesis, marks the transition to signal analysis aimed to verify conceptual insights as gained from these studies [18, 19].

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    Santo Banerjee

  2. , Dipartimento di Matematica, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Torino, 10129, Italy

    Lamberto Rondoni

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Carl, P. (2013). A General Circulation Model en Route to Intraseasonal Monsoon Chaos. In: Banerjee, S., Rondoni, L. (eds) Applications of Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics in Science and Engineering - Vol. 3. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34017-8_3

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