Abstract
To measure the regional impacts and possible development and planning policies of the “Bolsa Familia” Program, an income transfer program founded by the Brazilian Federal Government, this study innovates by combining geoprocessing with input–output theory. The analytical potential is showed through the estimation and analysis of the São Paulo State Municipalities supply and demand relations. These relations were estimated in the process of the construction of the state interregional input–output system. By having in view that the creation of accurate development strategies depends on regional peculiarities, the results show that this program must be understood not only as a form of income transference, but also as a catalytic agent for decreasing the regional inequality inside the state.
JEL codes: C67, R15, R58
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Notes
- 1.
The Central Place Theory of Weber evidences the hierarchical relation among cities and is based in scale economies and in the optimization of transportation costs (Fujita et al. 2002). In this way, the optimal localization of production in relation to demand is a factor that justifies even more the utilization of models related to the transportation network in the input–output analysis.
- 2.
The gravity approach utilized in many fields, also incorporated to the modeling of the distribution of demand for transportation (model of four stages), admits characteristics that are very close to those required in the process of estimating the interregional flows. It is inspired in the Newtonians observations about gravity, assuming that the movements of goods depend on the levels of demand in the destination region and of supply in the origin, but are inhibited by the attrition of distance.
- 3.
This table corresponds to a system of 42 productive sectors obtained for the São Paulo State, using the method presented by Guilhoto and Sesso Filho (2005a). The technique of estimation is based in the disaggregation of the state data from the national Brazilian table, estimated in accordance with Guilhoto and Sesso Filho (2005a), and in the use of data on the interstate flows presented in Vasconcelos (2006).
- 4.
This hypothesis means that the production technology of all the municipalities is similar to the state mean. In other words, a company of sector A, in a municipality, consumes inputs from sectors B, C and D in the same proportion as the state mean, considering all the companies that compose sector A, in the State. For this reason, the results of the present model must not be applied in analysis intending to evaluate the technological differences of the sectoral production in the municipalities.
- 5.
The system was previously calculated considering the 42 productive sectors, but it was then aggregated into 8 groups, in order to facilitate the understanding of the data. Besides this, there are 5 groups of final demand for the 645 municipalities of São Paulo, determining a ZR square matrix with 5,160 rows and columns and a YR matrix with the same number of rows and 3,225 columns.
- 6.
The “Bolsa Família” Program (BFP) is a conditional program of direct income transfers of the Federal Government. The objective of this program is to guarantee that “poor” (monthly income per person from R$ 60 to R$120) and “extremely poor” (income per person lower than R$60) families receive a monthly benefit, according to Brasil (2007b).
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Ichihara, S.M., Guilhoto, J.J.M., Imori, D. (2013). Regional Development and Government Income Transfer Programs: Combining Input–Output Systems and Geoprocessing as Tools for Planning in São Paulo State, Brazil. In: Crescenzi, R., Percoco, M. (eds) Geography, Institutions and Regional Economic Performance. Advances in Spatial Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33395-8_20
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