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Models Based on Neural Networks and Neuro-Fuzzy Systems for Wind Power Prediction Using Wavelet Transform as Data Preprocessing Method

  • Ronaldo R. B. de Aquino
  • Hugo T. V. Gouveia
  • Milde M. S. Lira
  • Aida A. Ferreira
  • Otoni Nobrega Neto
  • Manoel A. CarvalhoJr.
Part of the Communications in Computer and Information Science book series (CCIS, volume 311)

Abstract

Several studies have shown that the Brazilian wind potential can contribute significantly to the electricity supply, especially in the Northeast, where winds present an important feature of being complementary in relation to the flows of the San Francisco River. This work proposes and develops models to forecast hourly average wind speeds and wind power generation based on Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic and Wavelets. The models were adjusted for forecasting with variable steps up to twenty-four hours ahead. The gain of some of the developed models in relation to the reference model was of approximately 80% for forecasts in a period of one hour ahead. The results showed that a wavelet analysis combined with artificial intelligence tools provides more reliable forecasts than those obtained with the reference models, especially for forecasts in a period of 1 to 6 hours ahead.

Keywords

Wind Energy Artificial Intelligence Fuzzy Logic Wind Forecasting Neural Networks Time Series Analysis Wavelet Transforms 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ronaldo R. B. de Aquino
    • 1
  • Hugo T. V. Gouveia
    • 1
  • Milde M. S. Lira
    • 1
  • Aida A. Ferreira
    • 2
  • Otoni Nobrega Neto
    • 1
  • Manoel A. CarvalhoJr.
    • 1
  1. 1.Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE)RecifeBrazil
  2. 2.Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Pernambuco(IFPE)RecifeBrazil

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