Modelling World Energy Applying Simplicial Linear Ordinary Differential Equations

Abstract

Energy resources are very important for any kind of society. The energy consumed in the world comes from various sources. The time series data can be considered from the compositional point of view. Two groups can be considered: widespread (fossil, nuclear and hydraulics) and the modern renewable. In this paper the evolution of world energy system is studied, applying a model based on first order simplicial linear ordinary differential equations. The matrix of data is used to fit the parameters of a compositional model based on the integral form of the system expressed on ilr-coordinates (balances) of compositions. Groups are studied separately and a projection of the evolution of the proportions of the different sources of energy in the future is presented.