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Mathematics of Planet Earth pp 49–52Cite as

Distributional Assumptions and Parametric Uncertainties in the Aggregation of Geologic Resources

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Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Earth System Sciences ((LNESS))

Abstract

Complexities in the stochastic characterization of geologic resources extending over large geographical areas often force a subdivision of the ultimate area of interest. Oil, gas, hydrates, mineral resources, and carbon dioxide storage units are typically estimated at the level of a pool, reservoir, field or deposit. Often these estimates are aggregated to a basin, region, and/or national level. The manner in which these probability distributions are aggregated can have a significant effect on the resulting uncertainty, given that dependency usually exists at a basin and higher levels. All aggregation procedures involve the specification of a dependency matrix, which is complicated by the lack of data and the skewness of the distributions. We illustrate the difficulty of assessing correlations from scatter plots of skewed distributions and examine aggregate estimates given assumptions about the form of the underlying distributions of resource estimates.

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References

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Acknowledgments

This research was partly supported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Suggestions of Madalyn Blondes and Emil Attanasi are greatly appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Southwest Statistical Consulting, LLC, 960 Sligo St., Cortez, CO, 81321, USA

    John H. Schuenemeyer

  2. U. S. Geological Survey, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, MS 956, Reston, VA, 20192, USA

    Ricardo A. Olea

Authors
  1. John H. Schuenemeyer
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  2. Ricardo A. Olea
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to John H. Schuenemeyer .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Investigación&Prospectiva Geocientífica, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Madrid, Spain

    Eulogio Pardo-Igúzquiza

  2. Investigación&Prospectiva Geocientífica, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Madrid, Spain

    Carolina Guardiola-Albert

  3. Investigación&Prospectiva Geocientífica, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Madrid, Spain

    Javier Heredia

  4. Investigación&Prospectiva Geocientífica, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Madrid, Spain

    Luis Moreno-Merino

  5. Investigación&Prospectiva Geocientífica, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Madrid, Spain

    Juan José Durán

  6. Saudi Aramco, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

    Jose Antonio Vargas-Guzmán

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Schuenemeyer, J.H., Olea, R.A. (2014). Distributional Assumptions and Parametric Uncertainties in the Aggregation of Geologic Resources. In: Pardo-Igúzquiza, E., Guardiola-Albert, C., Heredia, J., Moreno-Merino, L., Durán, J., Vargas-Guzmán, J. (eds) Mathematics of Planet Earth. Lecture Notes in Earth System Sciences. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32408-6_12

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