Abstract
Under consideration of individual, relational and spatial aspects of vulnerability, the social simulation explored the dynamics of vulnerability in the coastal zone of Germany. The exploratory assessment of vulnerability by means of an ABM might in the first way be considered as a methodological approach. But the agent concept offers also a conceptually different approach for vulnerability assessment as it implies “thinking in complexity”.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsNotes
- 1.
Although agents can persuade other agents in the course of the model, all preferences are derived from empirical data and read as behavioural rules at the beginning of the simulation.
- 2.
Whereas the positive feedback effect depends on local relationships inside the model, i.e. between the agents in their collectives, the negative feedback effect depends on the temporal relationships inside the model, i.e. based on the simulated time steps.
- 3.
The last “phase” of stagnation still was documented in the model results to indicate that no vulnerability reduction can be assessed from this point onwards.
- 4.
Shortly after a disaster the motivation to implement risk reducing measures is higher than with further time distance from the event (see Steinführer and Kuhlicke 2007, p. 97).
- 5.
Even though, only positive effects of the self-protection strategies were included.
References
Bankoff G (2001) Rendering the world unsafe: “vulnerability” as western discourse. Disasters 25(1):19–35. doi:10.1111/1467-7717.00159. Accessed 7 Mar 2011
BBK (2006) Dritter Gefahrenbericht der Schutzkommission beim Bundesminister des Innern. Bericht über mögliche Gefahren für die Bevölkerung bei Großkatastrophen und im Verteidigungsfall. In: Zivilschutz-Forschung Vol 59. Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), Bonn. http://www.bbk.bund.de/cln_028/nn_529830/Schutzkommission/SharedDocs/Publikationen/Band_2059,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.pdf/Band%2059.pdf. Accessed 25 Mar 2011
Birkmann J (2006) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo
Birkmann J, Wisner B (2006) Measuring the un-measurable: the challenges of vulnerability. In: SOURCE 5/2006. UNU-EHS, Bonn. http://www.ehs.unu.edu/file/get/3962. Accessed 14 Mar 2011
Bründl M, Romang HE, Bischof N, Rheinberger CM (2009) The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9(3):801–813. http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/801/2009/nhess-9-801-2009.pdf. Accessed 23 Mar 2011
Chapura M (2009) Scale, Causality, Complexity and Emergence: Rethinking Scale’s Ontological Significance. Trans Inst British Geogr 34(4):462–474
Cilliers P, Preiser R (2010) Complexity, difference and identity. an ethical perspective. Springer, Heidelberg
Downing T, Aerts J, Soussan, J et al (2006) Integrating social vulnerability into water management. SEI Working Paper and NeWater Working Paper No 4. Stockholm Environmental Institute, Oxford. http://www.egs.uct.ac.za/~gina/Downing%20et%20al%202005%20Water%20vulnerability.pdf. Accessed 21 Mar 2011
Epstein JM (2006) Generative social science. Studies in agent-based computational modeling. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Geyer R, Rihani S (2010) Complexity and Public Policy. Routledge, London/New York
Goersch HG (2010) Empirische Untersuchung von Möglichkeiten der Förderung der Persönlichen Notfallvorsorge in Deutschland. Dissertation, Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften/Universität Karlsruhe. http://digbib.ubka.uni-karlsruhe.de/volltexte/1000016069. Accessed 23 Mar 2011
Janssen M (2002) Modeling human dimensions of global environmental change. In: Timmerman P (ed) Encyclopedia of global environmental change, vol 5. Wiley, Chichester, pp 394–408. http://www.public.asu.edu/~majansse/pubs/egec.pdf. Accessed 10 Feb 2011
Janssen MA, Ostrom E (2006) Empirically based, agent-based models. Ecol Soc 11(2):37. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art37/. Accessed 10 Feb 2011
Mainzer K (2007) Thinking in complexity. The computational dynamics of matter, mind and mankind, 5th edn. Springer, Heidelberg
Mainzer K (2008) Komplexität. Wilhelm Fink, Paderborn
Mitchell S, Streeck W (2009) Complex, historical, self-reflexive: expect the unexpected! MPIfG Working Paper 09/15. http://www.mpifg.de/pu/workpap/wp09-15.pdf. Accessed 21 Feb 2011
Pyka A, Grebel T (2006) Agent-based modelling. A methodology for the analysis of qualitative development processes. In: Billari FC, Fent T, Prskawetz A, Scheffran J (eds) Agent-based computational modelling. Applications in demography, social, economic and environmental sciences. Physica, Heidelberg, pp 17–35
Ratter B (2011) Complexity and emergence? Key concepts in non-linear dynamic systems. In: Glaser M, Krause G, Ratter B, Welp M (eds) Human/nature interactions in the anthropocene: potentials of social-ecological systems analysis. Routledge, London
Seidl R (2009) Eine Multi-Agentensimulation der Wahrnehmung wasserbezogener Klimarisiken. Dissertation, Metropolis, Marburg
Steinführer A, Kuhlicke C (2007) Social vulnerability and the 2002 flood. Country Report Germany (Mulde River). FLOODsite Report NoT11-07-08. http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/project_docs/Task_11_M11.3_p44_final.pdf. Accessed 7 Mar 2011
Steinführer A, Kuhlicke C, de Marchi B, Scolobig A, Tapsell S, Tunstall S (2009) Local communities at risk from flooding. Social vulnerability, resilience and recommendations for flood risk management in Europe. FLOODsite Final Project Report. http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/project_docs/FLOODsite_Broschuere_7-09.pdf. Accessed 28 Mar 2011
Tapsell S, McCarthy S, Faulkner H, Alexander M (2010) Social vulnerability and natural hazards. CapHaz-Net WP4 Report. http://caphaz-net.org/outcomes-results/CapHaz-Net_WP4_Social-Vulnerability2.pdf. Accessed 10 Feb 2011
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Sobiech, C. (2013). Reflexion. In: Agent-Based Simulation of Vulnerability Dynamics. Springer Theses. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32365-2_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32365-2_6
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-32364-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-32365-2
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)