Model and Prediction: Yearly Data
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In the following we discuss statistical models, which are supposed (i) to describe the mechanism how a climate series evolves, and which can support (ii) the prediction of climate values in the next year(s). Time series models of the ARMA-type, as described in the Appendix B.3, will stand in the center of our analysis. These models are applied to the series of differences of consecutive time series values; this “differenced” series is considered as sufficiently “trendfree”.