Abstract
The purpose of this chapter is twofold. First, we report on a method developed at the Institut de la Statistique du Québec (ISQ) to estimate the GDP of regions within the Province of Quebec. And, second, we analyse the estimates to examine the recent evolution of the geographical pattern of economic activity in Quebec.
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Notes
- 1.
Technically, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), following the statistical system in Canada. It is understood that, throughout this text, metropolitan areas are Census Metropolitan Areas. We shall use the full expression “Census Metropolitan Areas” when discussing the definition of MA boundaries by Statistics Canada.
- 2.
Those estimates are published in the spring issue of the Conference Board’s quarterly Metropolitan Outlook/Note de conjoncturemetropolitaine.
- 3.
Statistics Canada defines a minimum threshold below which no information may be disseminated (Statistics Canada 2011, 71-543-G, p 31, “Release criteria”). For Quebec, that threshold is 1,500. It follows that for small CMAs, some industries “disappear” at times, only to reappear later on, just because the number of employees has temporarily fallen below the confidentiality threshold. This limits the level of detail at which the method is applicable and occasionally forces to make adjustments.
- 4.
The BEA method for computing Gross State Products (GSP), like Statistics Canada’s method for provincial GDP, is a mixed, bottom-up/top-down method which makes use of fiscal and administrative data.
- 5.
Panek et al. 2007. The 2001–2009 estimates of GDP by metropolitan area in current and real (chained) dollars are available from the Regional Economic Accounts page of the BEA Web site at http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm.
- 6.
A brief description of the INSEE method can be found at http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/detail.asp?reg_id=99%26ref_id=pib-va-reg
- 7.
Except for the three regional conferences of the Nord-du-Québec administrative region, whose economic and demographic weight is too small to subdivide the region.
- 8.
- 9.
Fiscal data are compiled by Revenu Québec, and passed on to the Institut de la statistique du Québec in an aggregated form that complies with the confidentiality rules which protect personal information.
- 10.
R1 slips are issued by employers to employees, with a copy forwarded to Revenu Québec. They contain information on the worker’s labour income to be entered in his/her income declaration for income tax purposes.
- 11.
Recall that, since 2001, Revenu Québec classifies NIUB data according to the NAICS, so that this conversion is now only necessary for fiscal data on salaries.
- 12.
For narrow ideological reasons, the governing Conservative Party of Canada has decided to make the long census questionnaire optional, beginning with the 2011 census. This was done against the advice of Statistics Canada, and in spite of widespread protest from numerous organizations across the country who need reliable data, including Provincial and local administrations. Statistics Canada will attempt to maintain the validity of the census, by distributing the long questionnaire to 40 % of the population, rather than 20 %. But it is doubtful that this will be successful in eliminating self-selection biases and ensuring an adequate representation of all categories of persons.
- 13.
For further details, see Annex 3 in Lemelin and Mainguy (2009a).
- 14.
OOS therefore includes (Statistics Canada 13-213-PPB): Interest and miscellaneous investment income; inventory valuation adjustment; indirect taxes on production, net of subsidies on production (taxes and subsidies on production are not to be confused with taxes and subsidies on products: the latter are not taken into account in the calculation of GDP at basic prices); and, finally, capital consumption allowances (or depreciation).
- 15.
Immobilisations et réparations des secteursprivé et public, par région administrative, Québec, years 1997 and following, Institut de la statistique du Québec, Direction des statistiques-économiques et du développement durable. Source: Statistics Canada, Investment and Capital Stock Division. Compilation: Institut de la statistique du Québec. These data may be downloaded from the Banque de données des statistiquesofficiellessur le Québec (BDSO): http://www.bdso.gouv.qc.ca/.
- 16.
More information on the Annual Survey of Manufactures and Logging at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/imdb/p2SV_f.pl?Function=getSurvey%26SDDS=2103%26lang=en%26db=imdb%26adm=8%26dis=2
- 17.
Six of the 11 study regions in Polèse and Shearmur (2002) are in Quebec: Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Côte-Nord, Gaspésie, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, and two subdivisions of the Bas-Saint-Laurent administrative region.
- 18.
Such is the case, for example, of the non-metropolitan area around the Saguenay MA, most of which could be attributed to the North peripheral region.
- 19.
It is readily recognized that, to compare the closeness of relationships, given that the correlation coefficient is a measure of linear dependence, it would be mathematically more correct to take the logarithmic transform of Eq. 6.3 and compute correlations between the logarithm of the left-hand side variable and the logarithms of each of the two right-hand side variables. But that would make the exposition unnecessarily technical. Given the Maclaurin series ln(1 + z) = z − z 2/2 + z 3/3–z 4/4 + …, we consider [(x t /x 0) − 1] to be a first order Taylor approximation of ln(x t /x 0) when x t is close to x 0, so the more correct mathematical approach would lead to the same observations.
- 20.
What we call the panel correlation coefficient here is calculated for the panel of 16 regions and 12 year-to-year changes (from 1997–1998 to 2008–2009).
- 21.
Named after Walter Duffett, who was Chief Statistician in the early 1970s when these rules were adopted.
- 22.
The detailed tables are available on demand from the first author.
- 23.
The growth decomposition is for the 1997–2008 period, rather than 1997–2009, because the regional gross value added data for 2009 were not yet available by industry at the time of writing this article.
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Appendix 1: Definition of Analytical Regions
Appendix 1: Definition of Analytical Regions
Montreal AR | Montreal AR |
Laval AR | Laval AR |
Rest-of-Montreal MA | Montreal MA − [Montreal AR + Laval AR] |
Perimetropolitanarea | [Laurentides AR + Lanaudière AR + Montérégie AR] − Rest-of-Montreal MA |
Québec MA | Québec MA |
Non-metro around Québec MA | [Chaudière-Appalaches AR + Capitale-Nationale AR] − Québec MA |
Gatineau MA | Part of the Ottawa-Gatineau MA located in the Province of Quebec |
Non-metro around Gatineau MA | Outaouais AR − Gatineau MA |
Sherbrooke MA | Sherbrooke MA |
Non-metro around Sherbrooke MA | Estrie AR − Sherbrooke MA |
Trois-Rivières MA | Trois-Rivières MA |
Non-metro around Trois-Rivières MA | [Mauricie AR + Centre-du-Québec AR] − Trois-Rivières MA |
Saguenay MA | Saguenay MA |
Non-metro around Saguenay MA | Saguenay – Lac-Saint-Jean AR − Saguenay MA |
Rest-of-the-North | Abitibi-Témiscamingue AR + Nord-du-Québec AR + Côte-Nord AR |
East | Bas-Saint-Laurent AR + Gaspésie – Îles-de-la- Madeleine AR |
Subtotals: | |
Montreal and peri-metro area | Montreal MA + Perimetropolitan area |
Montreal MA | Montreal AR + Laval AR + Rest-of-Montreal MA |
Other metropolitan areas | Québec MA + Gatineau MA + Sherbrooke MA + Trois-Rivières MA + Saguenay MA |
Montreal MA | Montreal AR + Laval AR + Rest-of-Montreal MA |
Other non-metro | Perimetropolitan area + Non-metro away from Montreal |
Non-metro away from Montreal | Non-metro around Quõbec MA + Non-metro around Gatineau MA + Non-metro around Sherbrooke MA + Non-metro around Trois-Riviòres MA + Peripheral regions |
Peripheral regions | Non-metro around Saguenay MA + Rest-of-the-North + East |
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Lemelin, A., Mainguy, P., Bilodeau, D., Aubé, R. (2012). GDP Estimates for Regions Within the Province of Quebec: The Changing Geography of Economic Activity. In: Fernández Vázquez, E., Rubiera Morollón, F. (eds) Defining the Spatial Scale in Modern Regional Analysis. Advances in Spatial Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31994-5_6
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