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Foresight in Germany: Implications for Policy Making

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Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future

Abstract

This chapter addresses the efforts of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) to use Foresight processes as instruments in to look into the longer-term future, from which to derive insights into, and recommendations for, research and innovation policies. These efforts have evolved over time. The first projects aimed at providing information about future topics; however more recent Foresight processes were directed to the BMBF and (indirectly) its portfolio. We examine the effects of these Foresight processes, leading us to explore the reasons for it being difficult in practice to really have an impact on policy making. The latest “BMBF Foresight Process” illustrates these attempts and shows a tendency towards systemic integration of Foresight results and use of these to inform transformation processes.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    There is a new understanding of this function: foresight is more important to find out if there is a consensus or the potential for conflicts than to create a consensus.

  2. 2.

    The objectives of the forerunner Futur started in 2000 were unclear, therefore, they are not mentioned here.

  3. 3.

    The results of the evaluation are not published, only a short summary is available from BMBF. Therefore, these assessments are the author‘s more general findings.

  4. 4.

    This was often stated in the surveys which were performed during the monitoring of the process and at the end of Futur to provide the evaluation panel with data.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Breslauer Str. 48, 76139, Karlsruhe, Germany

    Kerstin Cuhls

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  1. Kerstin Cuhls
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Correspondence to Kerstin Cuhls .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Higher School of Economics, Research Laboratory for Science, National Research University, Myasnitskaya str. 20, Moscow, 101000, Russia

    Dirk Meissner

  2. Higher School of Economics, Institute for Statistical Studies and, National Research University, Myasnitskaya str. 20, Moscow, 101000, Russia

    Leonid Gokhberg

  3. Higher School of Economics, Institute for Statistical Studies and, National Research University, Myasnitskaya str. 20, Moscow, 101000, Russia

    Alexander Sokolov

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Cuhls, K. (2013). Foresight in Germany: Implications for Policy Making. In: Meissner, D., Gokhberg, L., Sokolov, A. (eds) Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_11

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_11

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