Alluvial Risk in the Costal Plain of Pesaro City, Northern Marche (Italy)

Abstract

Pesaro city (central Italy) stands on the alluvial plain of Foglia River, between foothills on the rear and the Adriatic Sea in the front of. On November 2005, an industrial area, as large as 12 ha, due to an intense rainfall event was flooded. Several damages to structures and infrastructures occurred, as well as property losses which blocked every economic activity for a long period of time, thus increasing the indirect losses due to the flooding. With the aim to ascertain whether or not the event could be forecasted, an in-depth search of the historically documented previous events was carried out and its result statistically analyzed. The statistical analysis allowed for detecting the return period of intense rainfall in the area spanning from recurrent to infrequent events (2 < T < 100 years). A comparison with the cumulative rainfall prior to the flooding event on November 2005, showed as the event is consistent with return periods of some to few tens of years, thus confirming that the event could be forecasted and properly accounted for in 20 how hydrological statistical analyses can contribute to solve questions arising from the responsibilities of evaluating and mitigating the natural hazards for a safer world.