Abstract
Since the reform and opening up of China more than 30 years ago, the country has been actively involved in the world economy. China has become the biggest beneficiary of economic globalization and has rapidly grown to become the second largest trader (climbing from its original position of 29th place). China will soon overtake the United States to become the world’s No. 1 importer and exporter and the bellwether of economic integration and trade liberalization, playing a significant role in the global economic system.
Peace would then reign over the world,
with all people under heaven to share
the same warmth and cold.
Mao Zedong (1935)
We should look at development issues
in terms of the development of mankind as a whole.
We must observe and resolve problems this way.
Deng Xiaoping (1988); Deng Xiaoping (1993a)
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Notes
- 1.
The report to the 16th National Party Congress points out that in the first 20 years of the twenty-first century, we must come to grips with the important strategic period of opportunity in which we will have plenty of room to display our talents (Jiang Zemin 2002).
- 2.
The British Standard Chartered Bank put forward the concept of “super cycle,” which is similar to the golden growth period. It defines a cycle as “a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanization and technological innovation, characterized by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.” See the Standard Chartered Bank, the “Super Cycle Report,” 2010.
- 3.
Angus Maddison holds that this is a period of relative peace and prosperity, with the world’s GDP growing at an average annual rate of 2.1%, higher than the 1820–1870 growth (1.0%). In addition, per capita GDP growth at 1.3%, is also higher than the 1820–1870 rate (0.6%) (see Maddison 1995).
- 4.
Angus Maddison holds that this is the golden period with unprecedented prosperity, with the world GDP growing at an average annual rate of 4.9% and per capita GDP at 2.9%. These rates are higher than in any previous historical period. World exports grew by 7.0%. The United States and Europe have played positive roles in the diffusion of technology, benefiting Western Europe, southern Europe, and Asia (see Maddison 1995).
- 5.
Scholars and research institutions have basically gone along with the view that the global economy will maintain its rapid growth over the next 20 years. The Standard Chartered Bank report points out that 2000–2030 will be the third super cycle since the industrial revolution in the West. The global economy will maintain 2.7% growth per annum. The previous super cycles were in 1870–1913 and 1946–1973, in which the global economy grew at an average annual rate of 2.7% and 5.0%, respectively. See the Standard Chartered Bank, “The Super Cycle Report 2010”. Roland Berger states in its report that from 2007 to 2030, the global economy will maintain approximately 3% growth, with the economic aggregate doubling in approximately 23 years. See Roland Berger, “Trend 2030,” 2007. Even the National Intelligence Council of the United States holds that in 2010–2025, global economic growth may reach 4% (see National Intelligence Council 2008). Economic historian Maddison also holds that the most successful three periods of economic development were 1870–1913, a free order period, 1950–1973, a golden age, and 1973 and onward, which is a new liberal order. In his works, he estimates that in 2003–2030, world GDP will be 2.2%, with wealthy countries at 0.7%, and other countries, 3.3% (see Maddison 2003, 2008).
- 6.
More than 20 countries were involved in the first golden age, including those in Western Europe and the United States, with a total population of 400 million in 1870, accounting for 31.9% of the global population. More than 40 countries and regions were involved in the second golden age, including those in North America and Europe (excluding Eastern Europe), Japan, Israel, the Republic of Korea, and Hong Kong, with a total population of 980 million in 1973, representing 25% of the world’s population.
- 7.
The average years of education in developed countries has increased from 6.22 in 1950 to 7.76 in 2010, an average annual growth of 1.0%. The average years of education for developing countries has increased from 2.05 in 1950 to 7.09 in 2010, an average annual growth of 2.1% (Barro and Jong-Wha 2010).
- 8.
Robert Fogel points out in his research that the productivity of a laborer with at least a college education, is three times that of a laborer with an elementary and middle school education (Fogel 2008).
- 9.
This prediction is similar to the 2007 prediction by Nobel laureate Robert Fogel, who said that by 2040 the economic aggregates of the United States, the EU (15 countries), India, China, and Japan will be 14%, 5%, 12%, 40%, and 2%, respectively (see Fogel 2007).
- 10.
Regarding the structure of global industry, industry peaked in 1970, accounting for 38.7% of the industry structure, before falling steadily (especially after 1980). The manufacturing peak occurred in the 1960s, accounting for 29.0% of industry. By 2030, the percentage of agriculture will be at 2.1% and industry at 20%, of which manufacturing will account for 11.2% while service will make up 77.9%. According to the US CIA World Factbook, in 2006 the percentages of those employed in agriculture, industry, and service were 36.6, 21.5, and 41.9%, respectively.
- 11.
For example, regarding services other than communications, their outputs by 2030 will account for more than 50% of the global GDP, but carbon emissions will only account for 2.7% of the global total (see International Energy Agency 2011a).
- 12.
The EU’s “2020 Development Goal” and China’s State Medium- and Long-term Science and Technology Development Program have both set a goal for science and technology inputs to represent 2% of GDP.
- 13.
1980–2008 data was sourced from the World Bank, World Development Indicator 2010; 2020 and 2030 data are the calculations of the author.
- 14.
By 2030, the overwhelming majority of African countries will see their populations aged 30 years and under exceed 60% and the share of the population aged 30 years and under will be 45–59% in southern and western Asia (excluding Iran, South America, Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile).
- 15.
Green energy has three meanings: cleaning of traditional energy, renewable energy, and the highly efficient use of energy.
- 16.
If the atmosphere’s global hothouse gas density is stabilized at 450 ppm CO2 equivalent (the so-called “450 scenario), then global CO2 emissions will peak at 30.7 billion tons (carbon equivalent) by 2020, CO2 emissions will drop to 24–26 billion tons (carbon equivalent) by 2030, and to 10 billion tons (carbon equivalent) by 2050, about half that of 1990 (20.9 billion tons, carbon equivalent) (International Energy Agency 2011b).
- 17.
Since 1820, while the world’s per capita GDP has been growing, the long-term trend has been a growing disparity in income. According to calculations and analysis by Angus Maddison, this manifests itself in a disparity among the various larger regions, which was less than 3:1 in 1820, but reached 16:1 in 1992. It is also manifested in the gap among different countries (between dominant countries and the countries with the poorest performances), which exceeded 3:1 in 1820 but reached 72:1 in 1992. Only a small group of lagging countries caught up after World War II and convergence occurred (see Maddison 1995). After World War II, per capita GDP in the South reduced compared with the per capita GDP of the North, from 20.5% in 1950 to 17.1% by 1970, and tp 13.5% by 2000. Per capita GDP in developing Asian countries reduced from 11.8% in 1950 to 10.0% by 1970, but increased to 13.5% by 2000, thanks to the economic take-off of the Asia’s Four Little Dragons, China, India, and Southeast Asia.
- 18.
According to the calculations of the World Bank, since 1950, the weighted inequality (Gini Co-efficient) has been in a continuous decline, mainly because income has been growing in population-dense countries such as China and India. However, if China and India are excluded, international inequality (Gini Co-efficient) increased after the 1980s. Since 1950, the un-weighted country inequality (Gini Co-efficient) has assumed a long-term upward trend. However, in the recent period, especially in the 1990s, international inequality was reduced, mainly because of an increase in the income of China and South Asia (see The World Bank 2006).
- 19.
According to calculations of the World Bank, the global average years of education received increased from 3.4 years to 6.3 years in 2000, while the education inequity variant co-efficient dropped from 0.739 to 0.461 (see The World Bank 2006).
- 20.
According to a study by the World Bank, while the world’s mean life expectancy has increased, the inequity in the mean life expectancy among the countries has been reduced, with the variant co-efficient declining from 0.233 in 1960 to 0.194 in 2000 (see The World Bank 2006).
- 21.
The United Nations put forward a global MDG in 2000 for the purpose of eradicating absolute poverty and improving the standard of living of developing countries. According to the MDG Goal Report released in 2011, if the governments of all countries commit to the specific measures and steps, then the MDG will be realized. Thus, it is expected that the global elimination of extreme poverty and hunger can be achieved by 2015, in addition to compulsory primary school education, promoting gender equality and empowering women, a reduction in the child mortality rate, improving the health of pregnant women, and fighting AIDS, malaria and other diseases, and ensuring the sustainability of the environment. Worldwide, people will enjoy more equitable development opportunities and fully enjoy the dividends of global economic integration.
- 22.
Ban Ki-moon, Let China be the country to show the way ahead, Speech at Nanjing University, October 31, 2010.
- 23.
In 1987, Deng Xiaoping put forward his “70-year theory,” that is, China requires a long period of peaceful international, from 1980 to 2050, so as to realize its three-step strategy. Deng Xiaoping said that China can realize the goal of ending poverty and attaining a comfortable living by the end of this century. But to reach the levels of mid-developed countries, will take about 50 years. Thus, we hope that there will be at least 70 years of peace. We must lose this period (Deng Xiaoping 1993b).
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Hu, A., Yan, Y., Wei, X. (2014). A World of Common Prosperity. In: China 2030. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31328-8_3
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