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Nuclear War: Its Environmental Impact

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Arthur H. Westing

Part of the book series: SpringerBriefs on Pioneers in Science and Practice ((BRIEFSPIONEER,volume 1))

Abstract

This paper examines the widespread environmental effects, sensu stricto, that would result from a large-scale nuclear war and the resultant ecological impacts. Singled out for analysis are the effects of wildfires, radioactive fallout, enhanced ultraviolet radiation, loss of atmospheric oxygen, gain in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and reductions in sunlight and temperature; also of combinations and ramifications of these adverse phenomena. In a large-scale nuclear war, wildfires initiated by the heat of the nuclear explosions would burn on perhaps 2 % of the rural portions of the targeted countries’ lands. These conflagrations would kill off much of the flora and fauna on those lands, and would cause long-term site debilitation through loss of soluble nutrients (‘nutrient-dumping’) and soil erosion. Radioactive fallout derived from surface bursts and destroyed nuclear reactors would for several days subject perhaps 10 % of the rural portions of the targeted countries to nuclear radiation (gamma, beta, etc.) at levels that would be lethal to all exposed vertebrates and to some categories of vegetation—for example, coniferous forests. At least 1 % of the territory of these countries would remain uninhabitable to humans for many decades. The killed vegetation would in time provide the fuel for further wildfires. Ultraviolet radiation-B (UV-B) would be intensified perhaps threefold throughout the northern hemisphere (and to a lesser extent in the southern hemisphere) through depletion of stratospheric ozone by oxides of nitrogen generated by the fireballs created by atmospheric nuclear explosions, diminishing to normal levels only over a period of some years. This UV-enrichment would debilitate both the agricultural and natural ecosystems on land, and perhaps also those in the ocean, for some years. Atmospheric oxygen would be reduced through respiration that would be unbalanced by photosynthesis, and in other ways including conflagration, but at biologically and ecologically inconsequential levels. Atmospheric carbon dioxide would be enhanced through the same process of respiration unbalanced by photosynthesis, and in other ways including conflagration, by somewhat less than 20 % (perhaps quickly adjusting to somewhat less than 10 %). This CO 2 -enrichment would have only minor ecological effects, but would presumably contribute to the coming global ‘greenhouse’ problem. Sunlight would be partially obscured by smoke from urban and industrial fires, etc., in great moving patches throughout the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere for up to a few weeks. Although such diminution of light would have little effect per se on the biotas, it might do so secondarily by causing more or less drastic reductions in temperature. Surface temperatures might sporadically drop conceivably by as much as several tens of degrees Celsius in the interior of continental land masses of the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere for up to a few months, whereafter modest temperature depressions might continue for a year or so. Thus, if a large-scale nuclear war were fought especially during the growing (summer) season, the reduced temperatures would kill or injure crops, livestock, and the natural flora and fauna. Among the natural ecosystems, those of deciduous (broad-leafed) forests would be most seriously affected, with ecological recovery taking a considerable number of years. In the considerably less likely event that the cold wave would extend into the tropical (hitherto frost-free) regions, ecological damage would be catastrophic. The various predicted environmental perturbations are of such magnitude in areal extent, intensity, and diversity that they would be sure to produce a variety of unforeseen ecological effects, especially in their interactions. The human survivors of a large-scale nuclear war would have to cope with a bleak and widely inhospitable environment indeed. It is concluded that nuclear war must be avoided, not only as the ultimate insult to human civilization, but also as the ultimate insult to nature.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The numbered references are provided in Chap. 3.

  2. 2.

    Reproduced from: Environmental Conservation (Cambridge, UK) 14(4):295–306; Winter 1987 with the original title: “The Ecological Dimension of Nuclear War”, by permission of the Foundation for Environmental Conservation, the copyright holder, on 26 March 2012. Based on an invited paper given at the International Conference on Protection of the Environment and the Defence of World Peace, Varna, 25–29 August 1986, of the Bulgarian State Committee for Protection of Nature. The author is most pleased to acknowledge help in the final realization of this paper from Lawrence C. Bliss (University of Washington), J. Graham Cogley (Trent University), Lynn Miller (Hampshire College), Peter A. Schmidt (Technische Universität Dresden), and John M. Teal (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution).

  3. 3.

    A 1 megaton (MT) bomb has an energy yield equivalent to 907 × 106 kg of trinitrotoluene (TNT), i.e., a yield of 4.19 × 1015 J. A 1 kiloton (kt) bomb has a yield one-thousandth of this value. The characteristics of nuclear bombs are summarized elsewhere (Westing, 1980, pp 180–181).

  4. 4.

    The mass of the air (density, 1.292 kg/m3) is based upon a global surface area of 510.1 × 1012 m2, of which 361.3 × 1012 m2 (70.8 %) is ocean and 148.8 × 1012 m2 (29.2 %) is land, the latter having an average elevation, with ice caps, of 780 meters above mean sea level. The air pressure at sea level is 10,330 kg/m2, and that at 780 meters is 9,230 kg/m2 (and thus that at 228 meters, the average global elevation, is 10,031 kg/m2). The average land elevation, with ice caps, of 780 meters was calculated by J.G. Cogley (Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, private communication, 4 November 1985; based on Cogley, 1985, Tbl A1). The mass of the oxygen (density, 1.429 kg/m3) is based upon a concentration in air of 209.5 L/m3. This concentration has remained constant for millennia (Broecker, 1970; Holland, 1978, pp 284–295). The masses of the carbon dioxide (density, 1.977 kg/m3) are based upon a ce 1800 concentration of 280 mL/m3 (Neftel et al., 1985; Pearman et al., 1986) and a present concentration of 340 mL/m3 (Keeling et al., 1982).

  5. 5.

    The photosynthetic gain/loss values for oxygen and carbon dioxide are based upon a global annual net primary production of ca 171.5 × 1012 kg, with a carbon content of 45.5 % (Westing, 1980, pp 21–22); an atomic weight of carbon of 12; and a mole-for-mole equivalence of oxygen (molecular weight, 32) and carbon dioxide (molecular weight, 44) owing to their mole-for-mole equivalence in the photosynthetic equation. Net changes in atmospheric oxygen and carbon dioxide as a result of weathering, sedimentation, volcanic action, and other natural physical processes, are apparently trivial in magnitude (Holland, 1978, pp 270–295).

  6. 6.

    The proportionate distribution of life forms within the temperate vascular flora presented here is based on counts by the present author among the 16,274 such species of plants for which appropriate information was tabulated by Shetler & Skog (1978), representing an estimated 90 % of the relevant indigenous North American flora. By way of comparison, the comparable ca 2,600 species growing in the [former] two Germanys break down as follows: annuals plus biennials, 26 %; herbaceous perennials, 62 %; and woody perennials, 12 % (P.A. Schmidt, Arboretum, Technische Universität Dresden, pers. comm., 30 September 1984).

  7. 7.

    Estimates of the number of species within each division of vascular plants are provided by Jones (1951) and by Raven et al. (1981, pp 634–636). The proportionate distribution of modes of reproduction within the vascular flora presented here is based on counts by the present author from among the 1,488 angiosperm species (within 128 families) for which appropriate information was tabulated by Fryxell (1957), representing somewhat more than 0.6 % of the world-wide total (or perhaps 3 % of the relevant temperate flora, from which most of the sample was drawn). The proportionate distribution of wind versus insect pollination among the cross-fertilized species is a mid-temperate-zone estimate by the present author, based on the compilation and analysis by Regal (1982).

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    Arthur H. Westing

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Westing, A.H. (2013). Nuclear War: Its Environmental Impact. In: Arthur H. Westing. SpringerBriefs on Pioneers in Science and Practice, vol 1. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31322-6_7

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