Abstract
The main goals of landslide run-out modeling should be the assessment of future landslide activity with a range of potential scenarios, and the information of the local populations about the hazards in order to enable informed response measures. In recent times, numerical dynamic run-out models have been developed which can assess the velocity and extent of motion of rapid landslides such as debris flows and avalanches, flow slides and rock avalanches. These models are physically-based and solved numerically, simulating the movement of the flow using constitutive laws of fluid mechanics in one or two dimensions. Resistance parameters and release volumes are crucial for a realistic simulation of the landslide behavior, whereas it is generally difficult to measure them directly in the field. Uncertainties in the parameterization of these models yield many uncertainties concerning their frequency values, which must be addressed in a proper risk assessment. Based on the probability density functions of release volumes and friction coefficients of a given landslide model, this work aims to systematically quantify the uncertainties in the run-out modeling. The obtained distributions can be used as an input for a probabilistic methodology where the uncertainties in the release volume and friction coefficients (rheological parameters) inside the dynamic models can be addressed. This will improve the confidence of the dynamic run-out model outputs such as the distribution of deposits in the run-out area, velocities and impact pressures, important components for a risk analysis and regulatory zoning.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Antiano JL, Gosse J (2009) Large rockslides in the Southern Central Andes of Chile (32–34.5°S): tectonic control and significance for quaternary landscape evolution. Geomorphology 104(3-4):117–133
Bagnold RA (1954) Experiments on a gravity-free dispersion of large solid spheres in a Newtonian fluid under shear. Proc R Soc Lond Ser A 255:49–63
Brunetti MT, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Luciani S, Valigi D, Guzzetti F (2010) Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10(3):447–458
Christen M, Kowalski J, Bartelt P (2010) RAMMS: numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain. Cold Reg Sci Technol 63:1–14
Guzzetti F, Malamud BD, Turcotte DL, Reichenbach P (2002) Power-law correlations of landslide areas in central Italy. Earth Planet Sci Lett 195(3–4):169–183
Hovius N, Stark CP, Allen PA (1997) Sediment flux from a mountain belt derived by landslide mapping. Geology 25(3):231–234
Hungr O, McDougall S (2009) Two numerical models for landslide dynamic analysis. Comput Geosci 35:978–992
Hürlimann M, Medina V, Bateman A, Copons R, Altimir J (2007) Comparison of different techniques to analyse the mobility of debris flows during hazard assessment-Case study in La Comella catchment, Andorra. In: Chen C-I, Majors JJ (eds) Debris-flow hazard mitigation: mechanics, prediction and assessment. Millpress, Netherlands, pp 411–422
Iverson RM, Denlinger RP (2001) Flow of variably fluidized granular masses across three-dimensional terrain. 1. Coulomb mixture theory. J Geophys Res 106:537–552
Malamud BD, Turcotte DL, Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P (2004) Landslide inventories and their statistical properties. Earth Surf Proc Land 29(6):687–711
McDougall S, Hungr O (2005) Dynamic modelling of entrainment in rapid landslides. Can Geotech J 42:1437–1448
McKinnon M, Hungr O, McDougall S (2008) Dynamic analyses of Canadian landslides. In: Locat J, Perret D, Turmel D, Demers D and Leroueil S (eds) Proceedings of the 4th Canadian conference on geohazards: from causes to management, Presse de l’Université Laval, Québec, 594p
Pitman BE, Le L (2005) A two-fluid model for avalanche and debris flow. Phil Trans R Soc A 363:1573–1601
Pudasaini SP, Hutter K (2007) Avalanche dynamics – dynamics of rapid flows of dense granular avalanches. Springer, Berlin
Revellino P, Hungr O, Guadagno FM, Evans SG (2004) Velocity and runout simulation of destructive debris flows and debris avalanches in pyroclastic deposits, Campania Region, Italy. Environ Geol 45:295–311
Stark CP, Guzzetti F (2009) Landslide rupture and the probability distribution of mobilized debris volumes. J Geophys Res 114(F00A02), doi:10.1029/2008JF001008
van Asch TWJ, Malet J-P, van Beek LPH, Amitrano D (2007) Techniques, issues and advances in numerical modelling of landslide hazard. Bull Soc Géol Fr 178(2):65–88
Voellmy A (1955) Uber die Zerstorunskraft von Lawinen (On breaking force of avalanches). Schweizerische Bauzeitung 73:212–285
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Luna, B.Q. et al. (2013). Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Dynamic Run-Out Model Parameters for Landslides. In: Margottini, C., Canuti, P., Sassa, K. (eds) Landslide Science and Practice. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31310-3_42
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31310-3_42
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-31309-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-31310-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)