Abstract
The impact of climate change on the flood risk and dike safety in the Vidaa River system, a cross-border catchment located in the southern part of Jutland, Denmark and northern Germany, is analysed. The river discharges to the Wadden Sea through a tidal sluice, and extreme water level conditions in the river system occur in periods of high sea water levels where the sluice is closed and increased catchment run-off take place. Climate model data from the ENSEMBLES data archive are used to assess the changes in climate variables and the resulting effect on catchment run-off. Extreme catchment run-off is expected to increase about 8 % in 2050 and 14 % in 2100. The changes in sea water level is assessed considering climate projections of mean sea level rise, isostatic changes, and changes in storm surge statistics. At the Vidaa sluice a mean sea level rise of 0.15–0.39 m in 2050 and 0.41–1.11 m in 2010, and increases in storm surge levels of up to 0.8 m in 2100 are estimated. The changes in extreme catchment run-off and sea water level have a significant effect on the flood risk in the river system. While most parts today have a low risk of dike overtopping with annual exceedance probabilities of 0.1 % or less, the worst case scenario in 2100 show annual exceedance probabilities of 5 % or more in the downstream part of the river system.
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© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Madsen, H. et al. (2013). Climate Change Impact Assessment of Dike Safety and Flood Risk in the Vidaa River System. In: Leal Filho, W. (eds) Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management. Climate Change Management. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31110-9_38
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31110-9_38
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