Abstract
In this chapter, the stochastic model developed in previous chapters will be extended with a regression term, where long-term trends of significant wave height are regressed on the atmospheric level of CO\(_2\). Hence, future projections of the ocean wave climate are made based on projected levels of CO\(_2\) in the atmosphere. Those projections are again based on various emission scenarios suggested by the IPCC, and projections based on two reference scenarios, referred to as A2 and B1, will be used. The model has been fitted by monthly maximum significant wave height data for the same area in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the results obtained from the extended model will be presented and discussed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
- 2.
The IPCC Data Distribution Centre, URL: http://www.ipcc-data.org/ddc_co2.html
References
Caires, S., Sterl, A.: 100-year return value estimates for ocean wind speed and significant wave height from the ERA-40 data. J. Clim. 18, 1032–1048 (2005)
Caires, S., Swail, V.R., Wang, X.L.: Projection and analysis of extreme wave climate. J. Clim. 19, 5581–5605 (2006)
Debernard, J., Sætra, Ø., Røed, L.P.: Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in the northern North Atlantic. Clim. Res. 23, 39–49 (2002)
Debernard, J.B., Røed, L.P.: Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in the Northern Seas: a revisit. Tellus 60A, 427–438 (2008)
Dodet, G., Bertin, X., Tabora, R.: Wave climate variability in the North-East Atlantic Ocean over the last six decades. Ocean Model. 31, 120–131 (2010)
Gelman, A.: Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models. Bayesian Anal. 1, 515–533 (2006)
Grabemann, I., Weisse, R.: Climate change impact on extreme wave conditions in the North Sea: an ensemble study. Ocean Dyn. 58, 199–212 (2008)
IPCC: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)
Jain, A.K., Kheshgi, H.S., Hoffert, M.I., Wuebbles, D.J.: Distribution of radiocarbon as a test of global carbon cycle models. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 9, 153–166 (1995)
Jain, A.K., Kheshgi, H.S., Wuebbles, D.J.: Integrated science model for assessment of climate change. Technical Report UCRL-JC-116526, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1994)
Kheshgi, H.S., Jain, A.K.: Projecting future climate change: implications of carbon cycle model intercomparisons. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 17, 1047 (2003)
Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grügler, A., Jung, T.Y., Kram, T., La Rovere, E.L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., Dadi, Z.: Emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press (2000)
Thoning, K.W., Tans, P.P., Komhyr, W.D.: Atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa observatory 2. analysis of the NOAA GMCC data, 1974–1985. J. Geophys. Res. 94, 8549–8565 (1989)
Vanem, E.: A stochastic model for long-term trends in significant wave height with a CO\(_2\) regression component. In: Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Ocean, Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2012). American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) (2012)
Vanem, E., Huseby, A.B., Natvig, B.: A Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model for significant wave height in the North Atlantic. Stoch. Env. Res. Risk Assess. 26, 609–632 (2012)
Vanem, E., Huseby, A.B., Natvig, B.: Modeling ocean wave climate with a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model and a log-transform of the data. Ocean Dyn. 62, 355–375 (2012)
Vanem, E., Huseby, A.B., Natvig, B.: A stochastic model in space and time for monthly maximum significant wave height. In: Abrahamsen P., Haugen R., Kolbjørnsen O. (eds.) Geostatistics Oslo 2012, pp. 505–517. Springer, Heidelberg (2012)
Vanem, E., Huseby, A.B., Natvig, B.: Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling of trends and future projections in the ocean wave climate with a CO\(_2\) regression component. Environmental and Ecological Statistics (in press) (2013)
van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., SMith, S.J., Rose, S.K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109, 5–31 (2011)
Wang, X.J., Zwiers, F.W., Swail, V.R.: North Atlantic ocean wave climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century. J. Clim. 17, 2368–2383 (2004)
Wang, X.L., Swail, V.R.: Climate change signal and uncertainty in projections of ocean wave heights. Clim. Dyn. 26, 109–126 (2006)
Wang, X.L., Swail, V.R.: Historical and possible future changes of wave heights in northern hemisphere oceanc. In: Perrie, W. (ed.) Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions, Advances in Fluid Mechanics, vol. 39, vol. 2, chap. 8, pp. 185–218. WIT Press (2006)
Young, I., Zieger, S., Babanin, A.: Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Sci. 332, 451–455 (2011)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Vanem, E. (2013). CO\(_2\) Regression Component for Future Projections. In: Bayesian Hierarchical Space-Time Models with Application to Significant Wave Height. Ocean Engineering & Oceanography, vol 2. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30253-4_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30253-4_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-30252-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-30253-4
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)