Skip to main content

The SMILE Model: Construction and Calibration

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Spatial Microsimulation for Rural Policy Analysis

Abstract

In the previous chapter we reviewed the use of spatial microsimulation models for policy analysis and reviewed the type of applications for which the methodology has been employed. In the absence of spatially representative micro-data in Ireland, we require a technique for generating this data and hence the microsimulation model. In this chapter we describe a number of methodologies for doing this and evaluate the performance of methods chosen for our ‘Simulation Model of the Irish Local Economy’ (SMILE). To recap, the primary focus of the SMILE framework is to assess the socio-economic impacts of policy or economic changes. The motivation for the model is to assess the impact of these changes in the context of agricultural, rural and environmental policy in addition to the more standard analysis of economic and social policy change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Anselin L (1995) Local indicators of spatial association – LISA. Geogr Anal 27(2):93–115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ballas D, Clarke GP (2000) GIS and microsimulation for local labour market policy analysis. Computers Environ Urban Syst 24:305–330

    Google Scholar 

  • Ballas D, Clarke GP, Turton I (2003) A spatial microsimulation model for social policy evaluation. In: Boots B, Thomas R (eds) Modelling geographical systems. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 143–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Ballas D, Rossiter D, Thomas B, Clarke G, Dorling D (2005a) Geography matters: simulating the local impacts of national social policies. Joseph Rowntree Foundation, York, Joseph Rowntree Foundation contemporary research issues

    Google Scholar 

  • Ballas D, Clarke GP, Dorling D, Eyre H, Rossiter D, Thomas B (2005b) SimBritain: a spatial microsimulation approach to population dynamics. Popul Space Place 11:13–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ballas D, Clarke GP, Dorling D, Rossiter D (2007) Using Simbritain to model the geographical impact of national government policies. Geogr Anal 39(1):44–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Birkin M (1987) Iterative proportional fitting (IPF): theory, method, and example. Computer manual, 26. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds

    Google Scholar 

  • Birkin M, Clarke M (1985) Comprehensive dynamic urban models: integrating macro- and microapproaches. In: Griffith DA, Haining RP (eds) Transformations through space and time: an analysis of nonlinear structures, bifurcation points and autoregressive dependencies. Martinus Nijhoff, Dordrecht, p-165

    Google Scholar 

  • Birkin M, Clarke M (1988) SYNTHESIS – a synthetic spatial information system for urban and regional analysis: methods and examples. Environ Plann A 20:1645–1671

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Birkin M, Clarke M (1989) The generation of individual and household incomes at the small area level using synthesis. Reg Stud 23:535–548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Birkin M, Clarke GP (2011) Enhancing spatial microsimulation using geodemographics. Ann Reg Sci, forthcoming 49(2) pp 515–532

    Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell SB (1996) Health, Wealth, Pensions and Life Paths: The CORSIM Dynamic Microsimulation Model. In: Harding A (ed.) Microsimulation and Public Policy, Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Chin S-F, Harding A (2006) Regional dimensions: creating synthetic small-area microdata and spatial microsimulation models. Technical paper no. 33. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarke GP (1996) Microsimulation for urban and regional policy analysis. Pion, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Dowsland K (1993) Simulated annealing. In: Reeves C (ed) Modern heuristic techniques for combinatorial problems. Blackwell, Oxford, pp 20–69

    Google Scholar 

  • Edwards KL, Clarke GP (2009) The design and validation of a spatial microsimulation model of obesogenic environments for children in Leeds: SimObesity. Soc Sci Med 69(7):1127–1134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edwards KL, Clarke GP, Ransley JK, Cade J (2010) The neighbourhood matters: studying exposures relevant to childhood obesity and the policy implications in Leeds, UK. J Epidemiol Community Health 64:194–201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrell N, O’Donoghue C, Morrissey K (2010) Spatial microsimulation using quota sampling. Teagasc rural economy research series working paper 7

    Google Scholar 

  • Fienberg SE (1970) An iterative procedure for estimation in contingency tables. Ann Math Stat 41:907–917

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer MM, Nijkamp P (1992) Geographic information systems and spatial analysis. Ann Regional Sci 26(1):3–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang Z, Williamson P (2001) A comparison of synthetic reconstruction and combinatorial optimisation approaches to the creation of small-area microdata. Department of Geography working paper 2001/2, University of Liverpool

    Google Scholar 

  • Kirkpatrick S, Gelatt CD Jr, Vecchi MP (1983) Optimization by simulated annealing. Science 220:671–680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Metropolis N, Rosenbluth AW, Rosenbluth MN, Teller AH, Teller E (1953) Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines. J Chem Phys 21:1087–1092

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nolan B, Whelan CT, Willams J (1998) Where are the poor households? The spatial distribution of poverty and deprivation in Ireland. Combat Poverty Agency, Dublin

    Google Scholar 

  • Norman P (1999) Putting iterative proportional fitting on the researcher’s. Working paper 99/03, Desk School of Geography University of Leeds

    Google Scholar 

  • Oketch T, Carrick M (2005) Calibration and validation of a micro-simulation model in network analysis, TRB annual meeting, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Openshaw S, Rao L (1995) Algorithms for reengineering 1991 census geography. Environ Plann A 27:425–446

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pratschke J, Haase T (2007) Measurement of social disadvantage and its spatial articulation in the Republic of Ireland. Reg Stud 41(6):719–734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rephann TJ, Makila K, Holm E (2005) Microsimulation for local impact analysis: an application to plant shutdown. J Reg Sci 45(1):183–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith DM, Clarke GP, Harland K (2009) Improving the synthetic data generation process in spatial microsimulation models. Environ Plann A 41(5):1251–1268

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith DM, Pearce JR, Harland K (2011) Can a deterministic spatial microsimulation model provide reliable small-area estimates of health behaviours? An example of smoking prevalence in New Zealand. Health Place 17:618–624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tomintz M, Garcia-Barrios VM, Gruber G (2011) How small area estimates can support policy planning – a case study for antenatal classes proceedings. In: Angewandte Geoinformatik, Salzburg

    Google Scholar 

  • van Laarhoven P, Aarts E (1987) Simulating annealing: theory and applications. Kluwer Academic, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Voas DW, Williamson P (2000) An evaluation of the combinatorial optimisation approach to the creation of synthetic microdata. Int J Popul Geogr 6:349–366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watson D, Whelan CT, Willams J, Blackwell S (2005) Mapping poverty: national regional and county patterns, Combat poverty agency research series no. 34. Combat Poverty Agency, Dublin

    Google Scholar 

  • Williamson P (2009) Creating synthetic sub-regional baseline populations. Paper presented to ESRC microsimulation series, London, 9 Apr 2009

    Google Scholar 

  • Williamson P, Birkin M, Rees P (1998) The estimation of population microdata by using data from small area statistics and samples of anonymised records. Environ Plann A 30:785–816

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wong DWS (1992) The reliability of using the iterative proportional fitting procedure. Prof Geogr 44:340–348

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Cathal O’Donoghue .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

O’Donoghue, C. et al. (2013). The SMILE Model: Construction and Calibration. In: O'Donoghue, C., Ballas, D., Clarke, G., Hynes, S., Morrissey, K. (eds) Spatial Microsimulation for Rural Policy Analysis. Advances in Spatial Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30026-4_4

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30026-4_4

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-30025-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-30026-4

  • eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsEconomics and Finance (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics