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The Sun: New Challenges pp 93–104Cite as

On Our Ability to Predict Major Solar Flares

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Part of the book series: Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings ((ASSSP,volume 30))

Abstract

We discuss the outstanding problem of solar flare prediction and briefly overview the various methods that have been developed to address it. A class of these methods, relying on the fractal and multifractal nature of solar magnetic fields, are shown to be inadequate for flare prediction. More promise seems delivered by morphological methods applying mostly to the photospheric magnetic configuration of solar active regions but a definitive assessment of their veracity is subject to a number of caveats. Statistical and artificial-intelligence methods are also briefly discussed, together with their possible shortcomings. The central importance of proper validation procedures for any viable method is also highlighted, together with the need for future studies that will finally judge whether practically meaningful flare prediction will ever become possible, if only purely probabilistic.

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Acknowledgements

I acknowledge valuable discussions and collaboration with M. Bobra, S. Bloomfield, and P. Gallagher. I also sincerely thank the Conveners of Symposium S3 of JENAM-2011, V. Obridko, K. Georgieva, and Y. Nagovitsyn for the invitation and opportunity to discuss the topic of this article. This work has received support from the European Unions Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n o PIRG07-GA-2010-268245.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics (RCAAM) of the Academy of Athens, 4 Soranou Efesiou Street, Athens, GR-11527, Greece

    Manolis K. Georgoulis (Marie Curie Fellow)

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  1. Manolis K. Georgoulis
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Correspondence to Manolis K. Georgoulis .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. IZMIRAN, xx, Troitsk Moscow region, 142190, Russia

    Vladimir N. Obridko

  2. SSTRI-BAS, Moskovska str. 6, Sofia, 1000, Bulgaria

    Katya Georgieva

  3. Pulkovo Observatory, Pulkovskoe shausse 65/1, Saint Petersburg, 196140, Russia

    Yury A. Nagovitsyn

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Georgoulis, M.K. (2012). On Our Ability to Predict Major Solar Flares. In: Obridko, V., Georgieva, K., Nagovitsyn, Y. (eds) The Sun: New Challenges. Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, vol 30. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29417-4_9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29417-4_9

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