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Causal Linkages Between Environmental Change and Conflict

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Climate Change, Security Risks and Conflict Reduction in Africa

Part of the book series: Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace ((HSHES,volume 12))

Abstract

There are many approaches to the causal linkages between environmental change and conflict. This chapter reviews the different schools of thought (including both theoretical considerations and supporting studies). The chapter begins by introducing one of the best-known approaches, inspired by Malthusianism, which stipulates that environmental change and population growth will lead to environmental scarcity and induce conflicts motivated by the need to control the remaining environmental resources. Critiques and alternative perspectives are then presented. They highlight, among other issues, that the role of environmental drivers should not be overestimated. Current research and available evidence does not allow clear-cut conclusions on the potential of climate change to provoke conflicts. However, there are indications that climate change can be a threat multiplier that destabilizes communities and induces or aggravates small-scale conflicts over natural resources. In combination with a range of socio-economic and political factors, climate change impacts such as scarcity (drought, resource degradation), volatile precipitations and reduced economic growth can fuel conflict potential. Nevertheless, non-violent outcomes are possible.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Nevertheless, it has been empirically observed that linkages also exist between non-renewable resources and conflict: abundance of highly valuable non-renewable resources (such as ores of precious metals) might result in abuses, exploitation and violence (Rowhani et al. 2012: 568).

  2. 2.

    Another example of the complexity of interactions between environment and conflict is that conflicts over natural resources have to be taken into account in broader environmental management and resources have to be factored in when looking at conflicts, although the conflicts might not always directly relate to resources. A recent report by UNDP/UNEP (2013) on The Role of Natural Resources in Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration: Addressing Risks and Seizing Opportunities, for example, notes that the environment should generally be an important aspect of post-conflict and peace-building programmes. The management of natural resources, especially of those necessary for the basic needs of households (food and water), is critical to the avoidance of further disputes.

  3. 3.

    For a review of diverging theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on the climate change–conflict nexus, see Ide/Scheffran (2013).

  4. 4.

    Population growth was 2.5 % per year in Africa in 2010 and the latest medium scenario of the United Nations (2010) is that the population of Africa could reach 4.1 billion by 2100 (UNPD 2012)—cf. Chap. 2, Sect. 2.2.1.

  5. 5.

    The term ‘anthroposphere’ refers to the human societies and activities that rely on and simultaneously transform the ecosphere.

  6. 6.

    However, the possibility of expanding control over more land and water resources is often a driver of inter-state conflicts (Brinkman/Hendrix 2011: 8).

  7. 7.

    A seemingly acute illustration of this neo-Malthusianism is the following assertion by Timberlake in Africa in Crisis: “Every civil war in Africa has had a ‘drought’ or a ‘famine’ as a cause or triggering factor” (Ejigu 2009: 888).

  8. 8.

    It should be noted that Homer-Dixon (1999) did not consider himself a neo-Malthusian (Brauch 2003), but others, e.g. Gleditsch (2003), interpreted him as such.

  9. 9.

    The risk of conflict increases by close to 20 % in regions that have experienced drought within the last year and by close to 40 % in regions that have experienced drought two years ago (von Uexkull 2012: 15–16).

  10. 10.

    This corresponds to a selection on the dependent variable, which is controversial.

  11. 11.

    WBGU: Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung—Globale Umweltveränderung.

  12. 12.

    Conflict was defined as an event leading to at least twenty-five deaths in battle in the course of a year (UNEP 2011: 43).

  13. 13.

    The hot spots will be discussed again in Chap. 6. For details see map Areas most affected by major changes in individual climate indicators—Sahel Region, at: http://www.unep.org/disastersandconflicts/portals/155/disastersandconflicts/docs/sahel_maps/Map11_UNEP_map_A3_climate_indicators_SummaryMap_20110719_300DPI.pdf and map Areas most affected by changes in climate—Sahel Region (Presentation of Climate Hotspots and Conflict Areas), at: http://www.unep.org/disastersandconflicts/portals/155/disastersandconflicts/docs/sahel_maps/Map12_UNEP_map_A3_hotspot_map_20110719_300DPI.pdf.

  14. 14.

    The different actors involved all participate or contribute to this collective action in pursuit of a common objective.

  15. 15.

    These parameters can be, for example, the increased likelihood of cooperating if the ‘game’ is repeated (Nash equilibrium), and the sense of pride and positive self-image gained from cooperating and respecting norms (Vatn 2009).

  16. 16.

    With such an approach, not only negative peace (the absence of conflict and violence) but also positive peace (mutually beneficial cooperation and harmony) are achieved (Galtung/Fischer 2013: 139).

  17. 17.

    The capacity of states to govern can be stretched by climate change, and their financial capacity might also be impacted directly and negatively through the costs of mitigation and adaptation to climate change as well as the costs of post-disaster reconstruction, and indirectly through reduction in economic growth and thus tax revenues (Ide/Scheffran 2013: 5).

  18. 18.

    Moreover, the number of casualties is shown to be higher if the season is wetter.

  19. 19.

    Theisen (2012), Rowhani et al. (2012), and Meier et al. (2007).

  20. 20.

    This assumption is not valid in the case of a green growth model.

  21. 21.

    An example of such a controversy was Buhaug’s (2010a) rebuttal of the 2009 findings by Burke et al. on the linkage between warming and civil war in sub-Saharan Africa (Buhaug 2010a). This study was in turn criticized by Hsiang/Meng (2013).

  22. 22.

    These studies used a variety of proxies for climate change: higher temperatures, reduced precipitation, more extreme rainfall events (droughts and heavy rainfalls), lower availability of fresh water, climate-related disasters, and deforestation (Ide/Scheffran 2013: 12).

  23. 23.

    The evidence indicates a causality between one of the indicators of climate change and conflict in 24 cases but denies it in 19 instances.

  24. 24.

    Scarcity should be understood here as a result of several types of environmental change: increase in temperature, reduction in precipitation, increase in frequency and intensity of natural disasters which can destroy resources or render them scarce, land degradation.

  25. 25.

    This statement still retains validity in 2013, five years after it was written.

  26. 26.

    Previously mentioned examples of political factors contributing to conflict onsets in a context of environmental change were ethno-political exclusion or weak governance capacities.

  27. 27.

    As it has been previously described (see Chap. 2, Sect. 2.3.2), neither conflict prevention nor conflict resolution is an objective of this study even though a continuum between conflict reduction and the other two approaches exists (See Fig. 2.11 in Chap. 2).

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    Charlène Cabot

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Cabot, C. (2017). Causal Linkages Between Environmental Change and Conflict. In: Climate Change, Security Risks and Conflict Reduction in Africa. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, vol 12. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29237-8_3

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