Abstract
The paper describes the statistical system in China, with a specific focus on the quarterly national accounts and the main source data. After reviewing the progress already made to meet increasing demand for short-term indicators by domestic and international users, we focus on four key issues that remain unresolved, namely: (1) the compilation of discrete data as against the current cumulative reporting; (2) the controversial identification of moving holidays and seasonal effects; (3) the need for new and better targeted source data to monitor infra-annual developments more effectively; (4) the remaining statistical gap for a demand-based estimation of quarterly GDP. To address these questions, we concluded that basic source data and agents reporting strategies need to be carefully reviewed and the possibility considered that sample surveys may soon complement administrative registers more often than in the current practice. Room for further, major progress in the quarterly national accounts of China could be limited in the very short term and the main pitfalls currently affecting source data must therefore be addressed as a matter of urgency.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsNotes
- 1.
Estimation methods of value added vary widely across industries: in industrial activities above a certain size it is obtained by averaging the estimates deriving from the production and income approach; in construction it is mostly based on the income approach; and in some service activities, like transport and post, it is directly evaluated at constant prices based on volume indicators. More generally, due to data limitations the pure production approach is applied in only 4 out of 94 industries for which annual value added is regularly released; in 39 industries a combination of the income and production approach is applied; and in the remaining 51 industries, estimates are obtained based on the income approach (Jin 2009).
- 2.
In wholesale trade, enterprises above the cut-off levels are those with at least 20 workers and sales of 20 million Yuan, while in retail trade they are those with at least 60 workers and sales of five million Yuan or more. In construction, enterprises providing comprehensive reports are all those with an official qualification in line with the standards set by the government.
- 3.
Between 1992 and 2003 quarterly accounts were either not benchmarked to annual data or verified based on more detailed data released on later dates.
- 4.
The complete list of sectors is: (1) agriculture; (2) industry; (3) construction; (4) transport, post and telecommunications; (5) wholesale and retail trade; (6) hotels and restaurants; (7) finance; (8) real estate; (9) others.
- 5.
The U.S. Census Bureau has developed the GENHOL program that generates customized holiday regressors. The program requires holiday dates for a sufficient span of years.
- 6.
Some private business services and public and administrative services, which were not recorded in previous sources; the production of industrial firms and/or establishments that were not classified in the administrative registers; rent services of owner-occupied units and other households services.
- 7.
Progress towards international standards was also achieved in the distribution across industries of the previously aggregate FISIM, the capitalization of software expenditure, and a sounder evaluation of the dwelling stock.
References
Bell WR, Hillmer SC (1983) Modeling time series with calendar variation. J Am Stat Assoc 78:526–534
IMF (2001) Quarterly national accounts manual
IMF (2012) World economic outlook
Jin H (2009) The overview of GDP estimates and related issues in China. Paper presented at the 13th NBS-OECD workshop on national accounts Haikou, China
Marini M, Zollino F (2009) Improving the monthly and quarterly statistics of China. Paper presented at the 13th NBS-OECD workshop on national accounts Haikou, China
OECD (2010) Economic surveys: China. OECD, Paris
Xu X (2008a) Some differences in GDP measurements between China’s practice and 1993 SNA guideline, China Economic Review 19, 480–488
Xu X (2008b) The development, reform and challenge of China’s national accounts, mimeo NBS
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Marini, M., Zollino, F. (2012). Macroeconomic Developments in China: The Statistical Challenges. In: Gomel, G., Marconi, D., Musu, I., Quintieri, B. (eds) The Chinese Economy. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-28638-4_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-28638-4_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-28637-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-28638-4
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsEconomics and Finance (R0)