Prediction of China’s Energy Consumption Based on Combination Model

Abstract

Considering the complexity and nonlinear characteristics of China’s energy consumption system, neural networks and time series are used to establish individual forecasting models for China’s energy consumption system, and each of the models was tested. The results showed that the models could be used as effective tools to predict China’s future energy consumption. According to standard deviation method, suited weight was distributed to the prediction of each individual model, then a combination forecasting model was established. The combination model not only gets rid of defects of the former models, but it raised the accuracy of the prediction. Then the combination model was applied to predict China’s energy consumption in the next six years. By 2015, China’s energy consumption will be 4.19 billion tons of standard coal.