Abstract
This chapter discusses alternative population projections for Pakistan for the next 20 years and analyzes fertility trends, the main driver of future population growth. The next section explores the important anticipated changes in age structure and in the size and composition of the labour force over the next two decades. The future prospects of prospering as a result of this expansion in the labour force depends on several internal and external factors, but the creation of a huge number of additional jobs is a stark reality that has to be faced in any economic forecasting. In the final section, the paper offers some suggestions for public policy to enable the country to benefit from a period of favourable age structure and declining dependency ratios mainly through expediting the fertility decline and utilizing the positive potential outcomes of raising employment rates for youth and women.
The author is the Country Director, Population Council, Islamabad. She would like to acknowledge the research assistance of Batool Zaidi, Maqsood Sadiq, and Imran Mahmood in completing this paper.
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Notes
- 1.
The Ministry of Health was abolished in June 2011 as a result of the 18th Amendment.
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Sathar, Z.A. (2012). Pakistan’s Population Prospects, 2010–2030: A Glass Half Full or Half Empty?. In: Groth, H., Sousa-Poza, A. (eds) Population Dynamics in Muslim Countries. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27881-5_6
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