Abstract
Although popular discourse in the West often treats the Arab World as an entity, in reality its countries are as diverse as those that make up Europe or Asia. This chapter therefore focuses specifically on the demographic changes occurring in Jordan and Yemen and links fertility trends and the “youth bulge” to current political developments and prevailing gender systems. It is argued that prevailing patriarchal political systems prevent the development of the type of less-stratified and equitable gender system that is a prerequisite for a balanced demography. That is, it is less gender equality itself that is a key aspect in this process than the social acceptance of a woman’s right to multiple roles, decision-making ability, freedom of movement, and citizenship. This is substantiated by presentation of relevant demographic figures and recent study findings from Jordan and Yemen; both countries with distinctly different Human Development Ranks but with conservative and tribal socio-political systems. Since the early 1970s both countries have significantly reduced their Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 8.7 to a still high 5.1 in Yemen and 7.9 to 3.6 in Jordan respectively. Despite significant progress in key development indicators Yemen still has a long way to go to provide basic services to the countries primarily rural population to balance its demography. Jordan, on the contrary is able to maintain good and gender equitable health and education coverage for its city based people and still its decline in birth-rate has stalled at a high 3.6 TFR since 2002. The prevailing gender and patriarchal political system in Jordan is a major determinant for this trend. Demographers that have long predicted the risk of social and political upheaval that is associated with the Youth Bulge in the countries of the Arab World need to be persistent in their recommendation for equitable gender systems as important prerequisite for countries to reap the demographic dividend of their youthful population.
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Notes
- 1.
“US Embassy Cables Tunisia – A US Foreign Policy Conundrum”, The Guardian, Tuesday, 7 December 2010, accessed 29 June 2011 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/217138
- 2.
“Middle East Unrest: Country by Country”, BBC World News, 7 June 2011, accessed 30 June 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12482293
- 3.
Ibid., p. 9.
- 4.
Freedom House, “The Authoritarian Challenge to Democracy”, Freedom in the World, accessed 19 May 2011 http://www.freedomhouse.org/images/File/fiw/FIW_2011_Booklet.pdf
- 5.
Ibid.
- 6.
UNDP, Yemen: Second National Millennium Development Goals Report, http://undp.org.ye/reports/24d06139cb9b57MDG%20Yemen%20English.pdf
- 7.
“Yemen Armed Conflict Assessment, Small Arms Survey”, Issue Brief No 2, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, October 2010, pp. 3–4.
- 8.
Yemen Poverty Assessment Report, 2010, p. 7.
- 9.
World Bank. Economic Update on Yemen, Sanaa 2007, cit. in Madsen, Effects, p. 5.
- 10.
The UN Agency for Palestine Refugees, UNRWA, Jordan, website, accessed 17 July 2011 http://www.unrwa.org/etemplate.php?id=66
- 11.
Jordan Department of Statistics, website, accessed 18 June 2011, http://www.dos.gov.jo/sdb_pop/sdb_pop_e/ehsaat/alsokan/wom_in/gender2009/health/10.pdf Data source: Jordan Department of Statistics, 1952–1979, cit. in Goujon, Population and Education Prospects. The 2050 figure is an estimation based on Scenario 1, in which the current TFR of 3.6 remains. See also, “The Demographic Opportunity in Jordan, 2009”, p. 16.
- 12.
“Trends 1980–2010”, Human Development Index, accessed 19 June 2011 http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_EN_Table2_reprint.pdf
- 13.
Jordan Department of Statistics, website, accessed 20 June 2011 http://www.dos.gov.jo/dos_home_e/main/jorfig/2010_e/jor_f_e.htm
- 14.
“Global Finance”, Jordan Country Report, accessed 20 June 2011 http://www.gfmag.com/gdp-data-country-reports/246-jordan-gdp-country-report.html#axzz1TUo9u0k7
- 15.
Ibid.
- 16.
Ibid., p. 32.
- 17.
UNDP, Millennium Development Goals: Yemen, accessed 25 June 2011 http://www.undp.org.ye/yemen_mdgs.php
- 18.
WHO, Country Profile, Jordan, 2009; Country Profile, Yemen, 2009.
- 19.
Madsen, Effects, p. 10.
- 20.
Second National Millennium Development Goals Report, 2010, p. ix.
- 21.
WHO, Country Profile, Yemen, 2009, 2010.
- 22.
Madsen, Effects, p. 10.
- 23.
Jordan Department of Statistics, Jordan Population and Family Health Survey, 2009, p. xiv.
- 24.
International Center for Research on Women, New Insights in Preventing Child Marriage: A Global Analysis in Factors and Programs, April 2007, p. 6, accessed 25 June 2011 http://www.icrw.org/files/publications/New-Insights-on-Preventing-Child-Marriage.pdf
- 25.
Ibid.
- 26.
CEDAW, Consideration of reports submitted by states parties under article 18 of the convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women, sixth periodic report of States parties, CEDAW/C/YEM/6, Yemen.
- 27.
UNICEF Factsheet, 1997, available at http://www.childinfo.org/files/Yemen_FGC_profile_English.pdf
- 28.
WFP, Comprehensive Food Security Survey, p. 14.
- 29.
WEF, Global Gender Gap Report, 2009.
- 30.
UNDP, “Table 4: Gender Inequality Index”, Human Development Report, 2010, accessed 20 July 2011 http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_EN_Table4_reprint.pdf
- 31.
UNDP, MDG Progress in Yemen, 15 March 2011, accessed 10 June 2011 http://www.undp.org.ye/MDG_Progress2.php
- 32.
“Towards the Rise of Women in the Arab World”, Arab Human Development Report, 2005, p. 28, accessed 15 July 2011 http://www.arab-hdr.org/publications/other/ahdr/ahdr2005e.pdf
- 33.
WHO/UNICEF. Progress on Sanitation and Drinking Water, 2010, Update, p. 28.
- 34.
Introduction, Jordan Population and Family Health Survey, 2009.
- 35.
Ibid.
- 36.
Arab Declaration to the World Summit on Sustainable Development. p. 5, accessed 20 July 2011 http://www.escwa.un.org/rcm/editor/Download.asp?table_name=rcm_meetings&field_name=id&FileID=182
- 37.
ESCWA, Jordan Demographic Profile.
- 38.
Ibid.
- 39.
Ibid.
- 40.
Ibid., p. 5ff.
- 41.
Ibid., p. 4.
- 42.
“The Youth of Jordan”, Jordan Human Development Report, 2000, accessed 20 July 2011, http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/nationalreports/arabstates/jordan/nhdr_2000_jordan-en.pdf
- 43.
Williamson and Eman, Insights into Gender Dynamics, p. 39.
- 44.
Ibid.
- 45.
Ibid., p. 40.
- 46.
Findings from a recent study in Jordan are inserted after each paradigm criteria.
- 47.
National Charter, Article 3, Chapter 5, Social Field Amman, The Updated National Population Strategy, Concepts, Foundations and Goals – 2000–2020, First draft, The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Population Commission, General Secretariat, September 2000, p. 4.
- 48.
Williamson and Eman, Executive Summary, Insights into Gender Dynamics.
- 49.
Gender and Development in the Middle East and North Africa, Women in the Public Sphere, MENA Development Report, The World Bank, Washington 2004, p. 10.
- 50.
Williamson and Eman, Executive Summary, Insights into Gender Dynamics.
- 51.
“Arab Youth Meeting: Synthesis”, unpublished document, Amman, April 2011, p. 5.
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Augustin, E. (2012). Demographic Transition and Gender Systems: The Case of Jordan and Yemen. In: Groth, H., Sousa-Poza, A. (eds) Population Dynamics in Muslim Countries. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27881-5_10
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