How long does a civilization live?

Part of the Springer Praxis Books book series (PRAXIS)


Nobody knows how long a technological civilization would live on average.


Probability Density Function Lognormal Distribution Technological Civilization Outer Solar System Zero Foundation 
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  1. 1.
    Claudio Maccone, “The statistical Drake equation,” paper #IAC-08-A4.1.4 presented on October 1, 2008, at the 59th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in Glasgow, Scotland, U.K., September 29–October 3, 2008.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Carl Sagan, Cosmos, Random House, New York, 1983. See pp. 298–302 in particular.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Claudio Maccone, “The living Drake equation of the Tau Zero Foundation”, a paper presented at the Sixth IAA Symposium on “Missions to the Outer Solar System and Beyond”, Aosta, Italy, July 6–9, 2009 and later published in Acta Astronautica, 68 (2011), 582–590.Google Scholar

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© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.International Academy of Astronautics and Istituto Nazionale di AstrofisicaTorino (Turin)Italy

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