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Volcanic Hazard Estimations for Volcán de Colima

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Volcán de Colima

Part of the book series: Active Volcanoes of the World ((AVOLCAN))

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Abstract

Volcán de Colima has one of North America’s highest rates of eruption, producing a wide range of eruptions ranging from effusive episodes to Plinian phases and sector collapses. Such activity potentially endangers over 350,000 people dwelling within the reach of volcanic products and runouts. To widen the hazard assessment derived from this activity, a statistical analysis of the volcano past events must include as many historically and geologically reported eruptions and debris avalanches as possible. However, in doing this, factors such as the complex dependence of flank collapse avalanches with the eruptive activity and other external factors, the increased underreporting with age and the uncertainties in the magnitudes, intensities, and dates of past activity, as well as the possible time dependence of the rate of eruptions must be accounted for. This chapter describes the statistical methods used to estimate the probabilities of different hazard scenarios for Volcán de Colima whilst addressing those factors.

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Acknowledgements

We are indebted to the reviewers, Mark Bebbington and David Pyle, and to Nick Varley, editor of this volume, whose comments and suggestion greatly helped to improve this manuscript. This research has been partially financed by DGAPA-PAPIIT-UNAM project IN106312. We are grateful for this support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, C. Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510, México D.F., Mexico

    Servando De la Cruz-Reyna

  2. CONACYT – Centro de Ingeniería y Desarrollo Industrial, Av. Playa Pie de la Cuesta 702, Desarrollo San Pablo, 76125, Querétaro, Qro, Mexico

    Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas

  3. Instituto de Geologia/Fac. de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí–UASLP, Av. Dr. Manuel Nava 5, C.P., 78240, San Luis Potosí, Mexico

    Lorenzo Borselli & Damiano Sarocchi

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  1. Servando De la Cruz-Reyna
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  2. Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas
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  3. Lorenzo Borselli
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Correspondence to Servando De la Cruz-Reyna .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Colima, Colima, Mexico

    Nick Varley

  2. School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA

    Charles B. Connor

  3. Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France

    Jean-Christophe Komorowski

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De la Cruz-Reyna, S., Mendoza-Rosas, A.T., Borselli, L., Sarocchi, D. (2019). Volcanic Hazard Estimations for Volcán de Colima. In: Varley, N., Connor, C., Komorowski, JC. (eds) Volcán de Colima. Active Volcanoes of the World. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25911-1_6

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