An Agent-Based Modeling for Pandemic Influenza in Egypt
Pandemic influenza has great potential to cause large and rapid increases in deaths and serious illness. The objective of this paper is to develop an agent-based model to simulate the spread of pandemic influenza (novel H1N1) in Egypt. The proposed multi-agent model is based on the modeling of individuals’ interactions in a space-time context. The proposed model involves different types of parameters such as: social agent attributes, distribution of Egypt population, and patterns of agents’ interactions. Analysis of modeling results leads to understanding the characteristics of the modeled pandemic, transmission patterns, and the conditions under which an outbreak might occur. In addition, the proposed model is used to measure the effectiveness of different control strategies to intervene the pandemic spread.
KeywordsPandemic Influenza Epidemiology Agent-Based Model Biological Surveillance Health Informatics
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- 2.Ching Fu, S., Milne, G.: Epidemic Modeling Using Cellular Automata. In: Proceedings of the ACAL 2003: The First Australian Conference on Artificial Life, Canberra, Australia (2003)Google Scholar
- 5.Daley, D.J., Gani, J.: Epidemic Modeling and Introduction. Cambridge University Press, NY (2005)Google Scholar
- 6.d’Onofrio, A., Manfredi, P., Salinelli, E.: Vaccinating behavior, information, and the dynamics of SIR vaccine preventable diseases. Th. Pop. Biol., 301–317 (2007)Google Scholar
- 7.Egypt Census Data (2006), http://www.capmas.gov.eg/
- 11.Mathematica, http://www.wolfram.com/
- 13.Liu, Q.-X., Jin, Z., Liu, M.-X.: Spatial organization and evolution period of the epidemic model using cellular automata. Phys. Rev. E 74, 031110 (2006)Google Scholar
- 14.Skvortsov, Connell, R.B., Dawson, P., Gailis, R.: Epidemic Modeling: Validation of Agent-based Simulation by Using Simple Mathematical Models. In: Proceedings of Land Warfare Conference, pp. 221–227 (2007)Google Scholar
- 16.World Health Organization, http://www.who.int/en/