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Design of Experiment to Optimize the Architecture of Wavelet Neural Network for Forecasting the Tourist Arrivals in Indonesia

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Book cover Informatics Engineering and Information Science (ICIEIS 2011)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 253))

Abstract

Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) is a method based on the combination of neural network and wavelet theories. The disadvantage of WNN is the lack of structured method to determine the optimum level of WNN factors, which are mostly set by trial and error. The factors affecting the performance of WNN are the level of MODWT decomposition, the wavelet family, the lag inputs, and the number of neurons in the hidden layer. This research presents the use of design of experiments for planning the possible combination of factor levels in order to get the best WNN. The number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia via Soekarno-Hatta airport in Jakarta and via Ngurah Rai airport in Bali is used as case study. The result shows that design of experiments is a practical approach to determine the best combination of WNN factor level. The best WNN for data in Soekarno-Hatta airport is WNN with level 4 of MODWT decomposition, Daubechies wavelet, and 1 neuron in the hidden layer. Whereas, the best WNN for data in Ngurah Rai airport is WNN with MODWT decomposition level 3 and using input proposed by Renaud, Starck, and Murtagh [11] and seasonal lag input addition.

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Otok, B.W., Suhartono, Ulama, B.S.S., Endharta, A.J. (2011). Design of Experiment to Optimize the Architecture of Wavelet Neural Network for Forecasting the Tourist Arrivals in Indonesia. In: Abd Manaf, A., Sahibuddin, S., Ahmad, R., Mohd Daud, S., El-Qawasmeh, E. (eds) Informatics Engineering and Information Science. ICIEIS 2011. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 253. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25462-8_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25462-8_2

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-25461-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-25462-8

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