Abstract
The recent increase of North Atlantic TC activity has attracted considerable attention especially since the exceptional hurricane season of 2005. Causes for this increase have been hotly debated in an attempt to determine whether it is within a range of natural variability, the result of global warming, or merely a byproduct of an inhomogeneous TC record.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Broccoli A, Manabe S (1990) Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate? Geophys Res Lett 17:1917–1920
Bruyere C, Holland GJ, Suzuki-Parker A, Done J (2010) Lessons learned from North American Regional Climate Model (NRCM) experiments. 29th conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, American Meteorological Society (Preprints)
Camargo S, Sobel A, Anthony G, Emanuel K (2007) Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus A 59:428–443
Collins WD et al (2006) The community climate system model version 3(CCSM3). J Climate 19:2122–2143
Done JM, Holland GJ, Bruyere C Leung LR, Suzuki-Parker A, Michalakes J (2012) Modeling high impact weather and climate: the tropical cyclone experience. BAMS (in preparation)
Emanuel K (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688
Giorgi F, Mearns L (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisited. J Geophys Res 104(D6):6335–6352
Gray W (1968) Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon Wea Rev 96(10):669–700
Gray W (1984) Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Nino and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon Wea Rev 112:1649–1668
Gu G, Adler RF (2009) Interannual variability of boreal summer rainfall in the equatorial Atlantic. Int J Climatol 29(2):175–184
Holland G, Webster P (2007) Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend? Phil Trans R Soc A 365:2695–2716
Holland G, Done J, Bruyere C, Cooper C, Suzuki-Parker A (2010) Model investigation of the effects of climate variability and change on future Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone activity. OTC Metocean 2010, pp 13
Hoyos C, Agudelo P, Webster P, Curry J (2005) Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science 312:94–97
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Met Soc 77(3):437–471
Knapp K, Kruk M, Hevinson D, Diamond H, Neumann C (2010) The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS). Bull Amer Met Soc 91:363–376
Knutson T, Manabe S (1995) Time-mean response over the tropical Pacific to increased CO2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Climate 8:2181–2199
Knutson T, Sirutis J, Garner S, Held I (2007) Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-grid regional model. Bull Amer Soc 88:1549–1565
Kossin J, Vimont J (2007) A more general framework for understanding Atlantic hurricane variability and trends. Bull Amer Met Soc 88(11):1767–1781
Marks FD (2003) Hurricanes. In: Encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences. Elsevier Science Ltd, London, pp 942–966
Miguez-Macho G, Stenchikov GL, Robock A (2005) Regional climate simulations over North America: interaction of local processes with improved large-scale flow. J Climate 18:1227–1246
Murakami H, Wang B (2010) Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: projection by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. J Climate 23:1699–2721
Nobre P, Shukla J (1996) Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress, and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J Clim 9:2464–2479
Oouchi K, Yoshimura J, Yoshimura H, Mizuta R, Kusunoki S, Noda A (2006) Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20 km-mesh global atmosphere model: frequency and wind intensity analysis. J Met Soc Japan 84(2):259–276
Randall DA et al (2007) Climate models and their evaluation. In: Solomon S et al (ed) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 589–662 (chap. 8)
Saunders M, Lea A (2008) Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. Nature 451(7178):557–560
Shaman J, Esbensen S, Maloney E (2009) The dynamics of the ENSO-Atlantic hurricane teleconnection: ENSO-related changes to the North African-Asian jet affect Atlantic basin tropical cyclogenesis. J Clim 22:2458–2482
Shapiro LJ (1987) Month-to-month variability of the Atlantic tropical circulation and its relationship to tropical storm formation. Mon Wea Rev 115(11):2598–2614
Sugi M, Murakami H, Yoshimura J (2009) A reduction in global tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming. SOLA 5:164–167
Swanson K (2008) Nonlocality of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 9. doi:10.1029/2007GC001844
Tsutsui J (2002) Implication of anthropogenic climate change for tropical cyclone activity: a case study with the NCAR CCM2. J Met Soc Japan 80(1):45–65
Vecchi G, Solden B (2007) Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Nature 450(7172):1066–1070
Walsh K, Nguyen K-C, McGregor J (2004) Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia. Clim Dynm 22(1):47–56
Webster P, Holland G, Curry J, Chang H (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309:1844–1846
Wu L, Tao L, Ding Q (2010) Influence of sea surface warming on environmental factors affecting long-term changes of Atlantic tropical cyclone formation. J Clim 23(22):5978–5989
Zhao M, Held I, Lin S-L, Vecchi G (2009) Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM. J Clim 22(24):6653–6678
Zhang Y, Wang H, Sun J, Drange H (2010) Changes in the tropical cyclone genesis potential index over north pacific in the SRES A2 scenario. Adv Atmos Sci 27:1246–1258
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Suzuki-Parker, A. (2012). North Atlantic Hurricane Climate Change Experiment. In: Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones. Springer Theses. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25029-3_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25029-3_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-25028-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-25029-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)