Predicting Computer Performance Dynamics

Abstract

Traditional approaches to the design and analysis of computer systems employ linear, stochastic mathematics—techniques that are becoming increasingly inadequate as computer architects push the design envelope. To work effectively with these complex engineered systems, one needs models that correctly capture their dynamics, which are deterministic and highly nonlinear. This is important not only for analysis, but also for design. Even an approximate forecast of the state variables of a running computer could be very useful in tailoring system resources on the fly to the dynamics of a computing application—powering down unused cores, for instance, or adapting cache configuration to memory usage patterns. This paper proposes a novel prediction strategy that uses nonlinear time-series methods to forecast processor load and cache performance, and evaluates its performance on a set of simple C programs running on an Intel Core® Duo.