Disaggregate Logit Model of Public Transportation Share Ratio Prediction in Urban City

  • Dou Hui Li
  • Wang Guo Hua
Part of the Communications in Computer and Information Science book series (CCIS, volume 236)


In order to analyze the distributing condition of urban passenger flow scientifically and correctly, the disaggregate Logit model is presented to predict the public transportation share ration in city, which is carried out by means of analysis of the outer and inner factors that affect the choice of modes of transportation and is based on the random utility theory. Firstly, the factors with major contribution to modes choice are selected according to the likelihood ratio statistic. Then the parameters of are estimated and the model is constructed. Finally, according to the proposed algorithm, the public transportation share ratio forecast test is carried out using the field survey data. The results of independent sample test indicate that the model has a finer precision and stability.


Public transportation Share ratio prediction Disaggregate Logit model 


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Dou Hui Li
    • 1
  • Wang Guo Hua
    • 2
  1. 1.Zhejiang Institute of CommunicationsHangzhouChina
  2. 2.Department of Traffic EngineeringZhejiang Provincial Institute of Communications Planning, Design and ResearchHangzhouChina

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