Detailed Discussion of the 18 Topics

Abstract

The study allowed to classify the 18 topics in the three categories trends, switchpoints of uncertainty and switchpoints of opinion-spread. Trends show high general acceptance. Consensus was reached with regard to e.g. ever shorter product lifecycles; the failure to halt the worsening food and water supply imbalance through new agricultural or water mining technologies. Switchpoints of uncertainty are those for which the respondent experts are extremely uncertain about the course of future developments. This category includes e.g. the questions of whether traffic flows will tend to separate or be integrated at a granular level and whether routing will become a predominantly central or local activity. Switchpoints of opinion-spread mean that most respondents have considerable confidence in their own opinions, but that their predictions vary widely. The widest spread of opinions was found on the questions of whether demand or authorities will drive the pace of green Logistics; whether environmental regulations will be backed primarily by financial incentives or by mandatory limitations; whether interfaces will mostly be automated or remain face-to-face; and whether consolidated last-mile networks will take shape in urban areas. This chapter gives the quantitative results of the survey.