Influence of the External Shocks on Price Fluctuations of Agricultural Products of China: An Empirical Analysis Based on the VAR Model
This paper has made an empirical analysis of the dynamic effect and contribution degree of various external impact factors on the price fluctuation of domestic agricultural products by applying the VAR model based on the monthly data from January, 2002 to June, 2010. The results indicate that various external impact factors are exerting an increasingly significant effect on the fluctuation of domestic agricultural products. Among the external factors, the transmission of price fluctuation of international agricultural products is the most important one; the contribution degree of petroleum price and international speculation capital rank the second and the third respectively; the contribution degree of external demands and the effective exchange rate of Renminbi are not significant. Finally, this paper proposed some suggestions of controlling the price fluctuation of domestic agricultural products.
KeywordsExternal Shocks Agricultural Products Price Fluctuation VAR Model
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