Urban Development Scenarios and Probability Mapping for Greater Dublin Region: The MOLAND Model Applications

  • Harutyun Shahumyan
  • Roger White
  • Laura Petrov
  • Brendan Williams
  • Sheila Convery
  • Michael Brennan
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 6782)


The MOLAND land use model was used in several studies to simulate possible scenarios of future settlement patterns in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR). This paper compares the results of three different research outputs with ten possible scenarios for GDR urban development. Brief descriptions of the scenarios and probability maps combining these scenarios are presented. The suggested approach of scenario analysis can be used by planners and decision makers to get an idea of the most likely development areas in the region if several scenarios are under consideration. In addition, probability maps help to find areas where the decisions could have the most influence on development patterns with minimal efforts.


scenario simulation model MOLAND probability maps urban development land use weighted scenario comparison Greater Dublin Region 


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Harutyun Shahumyan
    • 1
  • Roger White
    • 2
  • Laura Petrov
    • 1
  • Brendan Williams
    • 1
  • Sheila Convery
    • 1
  • Michael Brennan
    • 1
  1. 1.University College Dublin Urban Institute IrelandDublin 4Ireland
  2. 2.Memorial University of NewfoundlandSt. John’sCanada

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