Research on Electricity-Purchase Risk Optimization Model of Provincial Grid Companies in Provincial and Regional Markets Considering Price Fluctuations
Price fluctuation in the electricity market brings risk to electricity purchase. To reduce the risk effectively, this paper established a mean-variance risk measurement model for six in-and-out-of-province electricity markets based on the portfolio theory and the analysis of the distribution of provincial power gird market. On this basis, a risk optimization model for power purchasing was established and solved to get the reasonable allocation ratio of yearly electricity volume, monthly electricity volume and day-ahead electricity volume. Finally, through the calculation analysis using the model and simulation data from one provincial gird company, this paper proved the validity and practicability of the model.
KeywordsElectricity Purchasing Strategy Price Fluctuations Portfolio Mean-variance Method Risk Optimization
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